The Tariffs are Here: What do we Know?

The Tariffs are here. Or they seem to be. President Trump signed executive orders over the weekend imposing import taxes on goods from Canada, Mexico and China, as he has threatened since late November. If implemented, these are only likely the first of many waves of tariffs, but Trump is definitely starting off with a bang, imposing… Continue reading The Tariffs are Here: What do we Know?

What to Watch for in the Tariff Announcements

Tariffs are coming. Maybe tomorrow? Some reading/questions to interpret the results.  The tariff “will he won’t he” cycle continued on January 31 as the Trump administration continues to insist that tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China are coming February 1. This followed previous reporting that they would only come into effect March 1. The trigger… Continue reading What to Watch for in the Tariff Announcements

Day 1 issues: What I’m watching for in first days of the Trump administration

Incoming president Trump has labelled a lot of items day 1 issues and announced plans to sign many many executive orders on the 20th and in the early days of his administration. This piece tries to summarize what we now know about key economic (energy and trade) themes and what I'll be watching for in… Continue reading Day 1 issues: What I’m watching for in first days of the Trump administration

Some thoughts on the Trump Victory and Red Wave

Former President Trump has secured a sizeable victory in the 5 November election, accompanied by a sizeable if not filibuster-proof GOP majority in the Senate. He will see this as a strong mandate, which will likely make it easier to get nominees confirmed and proceed with many parts of his agenda, although the fiscal space… Continue reading Some thoughts on the Trump Victory and Red Wave

IMF Takeaways: Election and Geopolitical Worries Overshadow

I’m headed home from the latest IMF/WB annual meetings in DC. As always it was a great place to catch up with old friends and market contacts and get a sense of market and economic “vibes”. Coming so close to the US elections, where polls are so so close, there was an odd sense of… Continue reading IMF Takeaways: Election and Geopolitical Worries Overshadow