Some thoughts on sanctions effectiveness on the World

I shared some thoughts with the radio program the World and its host Marco Werman. Listen to the interview here or read some of the summary below. I touch on the moderate measures so far (though more are likely coming in the upcoming hours, the shift from deterrence to new triggers and whether there is… Continue reading Some thoughts on sanctions effectiveness on the World

State of Play on Russia Sanctions: What’s Happened, What’s Next?

The US and allies have responded to Russia’s formal recognition of occupied regions of Donetsk (DNR) and Luhansk (LHR) and belligerent rhetoric with a “first tranche” of sanctions. These measures, more extensive than some anticipated last night, are nonetheless well short of the pledge to start with the "strongest" measures. This reflects the administration's desire… Continue reading State of Play on Russia Sanctions: What’s Happened, What’s Next?

Some thoughts about the Potential Economic Impacts of Sanctions on Russia

I've been asked a lot in recent weeks (and especially in the last week) about the potential economic implications of a major US-led sanctions package on Russia. Economic impacts depends not only on US and allied economic policies, but also on Russia's response, including counter-economic measures and military choices, and of course on the decisions… Continue reading Some thoughts about the Potential Economic Impacts of Sanctions on Russia

OPEC+ Balancing Act: Auto Pilot Can’t Go Much Longer

The February OPEC+ meeting went off without a hitch, with members reiterating their prior plan to stay on track with the 400K/d production increase and doing so in "record time". The quick agreement, reflecting the benefit of monthly meetings and forward guidance, may be one of the last such smooth meetings as OPEC+ run into… Continue reading OPEC+ Balancing Act: Auto Pilot Can’t Go Much Longer

Talking Sanctions, Commodity Disruption and Global Growth Risks

In late January, I was delighted to chat with the hosts of the Doorstep podcast. we covered what's likely in terms of sanctions, how effective they might be, what risks of commodity disruption (energy, grains and fertilizer) and why I'm concerned more about a growth crisis than a debt crisis as the policy mix shifts… Continue reading Talking Sanctions, Commodity Disruption and Global Growth Risks

Some thoughts on Kazakhstan, commodity prices and policy Space

The protests in Kazakhstan have increased the focus on the impacts of rising food and fuel prices across many countries. The spike in natural gas prices and power costs across Eurasia has strained many countries, and amplified the impact of already increasing prices that related to supply chain disruption. While a badly executed fuel price… Continue reading Some thoughts on Kazakhstan, commodity prices and policy Space

OPEC+ Sticks to Plans, Avoids Difficult Decisions for Now

As expected, OPEC stuck to its plan of gradual increases at the December meeting, but left its options open by failing to adjourn the meeting. This allows the group, if necessary to make inter-meeting adjustments, or even for individual members to unilaterally decide to make adjustments. Ultimately, oil is likely to remain in the current… Continue reading OPEC+ Sticks to Plans, Avoids Difficult Decisions for Now

Iran’s Economy, Sanctions and key Scenarios

On October 7, I was pleased to join the Middle East Institute and Amwaj Media for a discussion about Iran's economy under sanctions and the trend ahead. The discussion coincided with stalled nuclear talks, as maximum pressure sanctions remain mostly in effect, Iran has built up additional nuclear capabilities. Read on or watch the video… Continue reading Iran’s Economy, Sanctions and key Scenarios

Some Questions About Evergrande, Chinese Real Estate and Global Growth

This week speculation about the possible default of Chinese property company Evergrande contributed to a notable if brief sell-off and much florrid commentary about whether this was a 'Lehman moment'. China-linked assets (especially Iron ore and AUD) sold off as did most risk assets, but the move was quickly reversed at a global level. These… Continue reading Some Questions About Evergrande, Chinese Real Estate and Global Growth