After months of running down its reserves ahead of the recent elections, even those borrowed from local banks, Turkish authorities, led by new Economic Mehmet Simsek seem to be letting the lira go, allowing it to weaken sharply to try to close some of the macro imbalances. While lira weakening was to be expected, in… Continue reading Turkey: TRY adjustment long in coming, but broader macro policy still unclear
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Unintended Consequences of Sanctions
I recently published a review of two important books on economic sanctions, their intended and unintended consequences and how they interact with other political and economic trends. Read an excerpt below or the whole piece at this link https://www.lawfareblog.com/unintended-consequences-economic-sanctions Economic sanctions are being used more and more often but also face more questions of effectiveness,… Continue reading Unintended Consequences of Sanctions
Canada’s Critical Minerals Outlook
This Winter/Spring, I had the great opportunity to participate as a client in a Capstone project of the Munk School of Public Policy and Global Affairs at the University of Toronto. A group of great grad students worked to help me get smarter on critical minerals supply chains, their use in battery technologies, the countries… Continue reading Canada’s Critical Minerals Outlook
IMF/WB Spring Meetings: Debt Worries Everywhere, Acute Risks on Backburner
I spent a few days last week at the Spring Meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank in Washington, a useful opportunity to take the pulse of many economists, policymakers and investors. The mood of many was cautiously pessimistic (though more optimistic than if it had been convened a few weeks earlier). Folks… Continue reading IMF/WB Spring Meetings: Debt Worries Everywhere, Acute Risks on Backburner
OPEC+’s Surprise Cut: Is the Global Economy Ready?
In early April, I wrote the following piece first published by Middle East Eye on the coordinated voluntary cuts announced by several OPEC+ members. The move reflects concern about global demand and what had become very bearish positioning - attempt to squeeze out speculators. Unlike Fall 2022 cut or even recent, Russian announced but only… Continue reading OPEC+’s Surprise Cut: Is the Global Economy Ready?
Update on the State of the Russian Economy and Sanctions
Many of us are contemplating lessons over the last year following Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine - I tackled some lessons about sanctions effectiveness and surprises in another post. This one addresses the state of play in Russia's economy and the outlook for sanctions. Overall, with the US government relatively satisfied with the oil price… Continue reading Update on the State of the Russian Economy and Sanctions
Some Lessons from the last year of War (and other global complications)
I like many others have been contemplating lessons learned in the year since February 24, the Russian renewed invasion of Ukraine, which took an ongoing conflict and took it to a whole new level. While its too early to tell all lessons, its a useful time to consider what we're learned about sanctions effectiveness, the… Continue reading Some Lessons from the last year of War (and other global complications)
One Year on, Assessing the Impacts of Russia’s War Against Ukraine: A Conversation with the Doorstep podcast
At the beginning of February, I had the chance to chat with the hosts of the Doorstep Podcast. Tetiana Serafin and Nick Gvosdev about the state of the global economy, the resilience of the Russian economy and the rerouting of global trade. An excerpt is below but you can watch or read the whole thing… Continue reading One Year on, Assessing the Impacts of Russia’s War Against Ukraine: A Conversation with the Doorstep podcast
Brazil in 2023: What to Watch for After January 8
The 8 January storming of Brazilian government buildings has exposed the divides present in Brazilian politics, and willingness of Bolsonaro supporters to use disruptive blockades. The economic and market impact will depend on whether there is additional disruption that might undermine Brazil’s critical infrastructure, how quickly the Lula government consolidates the security apparatus, whether the… Continue reading Brazil in 2023: What to Watch for After January 8
A few things to watch in 2023
The beginning of the year brings the release of many many market, macro and geopolitical outlooks and thus its a good chance to see where consensus lies and to mark down a few of my expectations. There seems to be a general agreement going this year – slowdown, partly coordinated, stronger H2 vs H1 (at… Continue reading A few things to watch in 2023
Ziemba Insights 