Blog

Update on the Russian Oil Price Cap: Deadlock on the “Price”

On, 25 November, EU officials have again failed to reach consensus on the price for Russian oil that would allow an exemption  from the EU ban on using its services to transport and sell Russian seaborne crude (aka the G7 price cap). Officials have agreed to resume talks next week, a week out from the 5… Continue reading Update on the Russian Oil Price Cap: Deadlock on the “Price”

Lessons from the Work of William T Ziemba

In early November, I was honored to speak at the Annual Quant Insights Conference hosted by the Certificate of Quantitative Finance about some of the work and legacy of my father William Ziemba who passed away earlier this year (obit here). Dad was an academic of stochastic programing and financial optimization who applied much of… Continue reading Lessons from the Work of William T Ziemba

Some thoughts on economic warfare and the range of coercive tools

The following is an adaptation of a presentation I made in early November on a panel about economic warfare for the Canadian Association of Security and Intelligence. Thanks for including me! The following will take an expansive view of economic restrictive measures which are increasingly being used for a variety of reasons political and national… Continue reading Some thoughts on economic warfare and the range of coercive tools

Update on the Price Cap: Aiming for Partial Compliance, Underestimating Potential Russian Supply Cuts

This note was originally published Oct 15 2022 as part of my IMF meetings recap. Oil Price Cap, Russia sanctions and Energy Risks On the side lines of the meetings, there were many discussions on the next steps in the economic pressure campaign on Russia and assessment of the unprecedented efforts taken so far. Representatives… Continue reading Update on the Price Cap: Aiming for Partial Compliance, Underestimating Potential Russian Supply Cuts

IMF Meetings: Gloomy Outlook, US Still Committed to Price Cap

This week I attended several conferences, the NABE conference in Chicago, the Columbia University Energy Conference in NYC and part of the IMF/WB meetings in DC. Collectively, they gave the chance to touch base with consensus views on macro economic outlook, geopolitical risks and market interpretations. And that consensus was  unsurprisingly quite gloomy. This shouldn’t… Continue reading IMF Meetings: Gloomy Outlook, US Still Committed to Price Cap

OPEC+: Not a mega cut

Today’s OPEC+ meeting confirmed several things.  They prefer to boost revenues prices in the face of weak demand.  OPEC has little interest in making it easy for the G7 to implement the price cap.  There was a need to reset targets to (partly) adjust for massive under production from many producers producers are concerned about… Continue reading OPEC+: Not a mega cut

European ‘perfect storm’: Impacts of energy crisis

In late August, I spoke with Gridnews about the risks to the energy, economic and political risks associated with the energy price spikes in Europe and the globe exacerbated by the conflict with Russia. While Europe has many more policy levers to cushion their populations than poorer countries, the costs will mount, economically and politically.… Continue reading European ‘perfect storm’: Impacts of energy crisis

Energy: signs of demand destruction? Do they outstrip supply risks?

at the start of July I spoke to CNBC Asia about the oil, products and natural gas balances. While there are starting to be some signs of demand destruction, especially in the US where gasoline demand is softening compared to 2021, demand is still near historic highs. Moreover other issues including how to manage the… Continue reading Energy: signs of demand destruction? Do they outstrip supply risks?

Scoring sanctions on Russia

In late June 2022, NPR asked me to do a new way of assessing sanctions effectiveness - scoring them. Rather than focused on intensity of impact (on Russian economic or financial markets), effectiveness needs to also consider change in policy or change in capacity not just economic strain. This is also difficult given the fact… Continue reading Scoring sanctions on Russia

Some thoughts on Inflation, the impact of the War and supply chain remapping

In early June, I spoke about the political risks of inflation, the impact of the Russian invasion and more while on a trip to Turkey. The following were my opening remarks, looking at how these different risks - conflict, isolation, sanctions and developing of new supply chains have added to inflationary risks and complicated resilience.… Continue reading Some thoughts on Inflation, the impact of the War and supply chain remapping