The beginning of the year brings the release of many many market, macro and geopolitical outlooks and thus its a good chance to see where consensus lies and to mark down a few of my expectations. There seems to be a general agreement going this year – slowdown, partly coordinated, stronger H2 vs H1 (at… Continue reading A few things to watch in 2023
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Thought-Provoking Reads 2022: Economics, Geopolitics and More
Annually I try to sum up the list of books that resonated this year or added new insight. This post shares a number focused on economic, geopolitical and historical narratives while a smattering of fiction and travel inspired reads are in another post. For once, almost all of the books that resonated this year were… Continue reading Thought-Provoking Reads 2022: Economics, Geopolitics and More
Thought provoking reads 2022: Fiction and Travel-Inspired
For the last few years, I've enjoyed ending the year by recapping some of the books that lingered with me and peppered my thoughts and conversation. This post highlights some favorites inspired by my travels this year to Turkey, Georgia and Italy and a few fiction volumes. While I read plenty of fiction this year,… Continue reading Thought provoking reads 2022: Fiction and Travel-Inspired
Update on the Russian Oil Price Cap: Deadlock on the “Price”
On, 25 November, EU officials have again failed to reach consensus on the price for Russian oil that would allow an exemption from the EU ban on using its services to transport and sell Russian seaborne crude (aka the G7 price cap). Officials have agreed to resume talks next week, a week out from the 5… Continue reading Update on the Russian Oil Price Cap: Deadlock on the “Price”
Lessons from the Work of William T Ziemba
In early November, I was honored to speak at the Annual Quant Insights Conference hosted by the Certificate of Quantitative Finance about some of the work and legacy of my father William Ziemba who passed away earlier this year (obit here). Dad was an academic of stochastic programing and financial optimization who applied much of… Continue reading Lessons from the Work of William T Ziemba
Some thoughts on economic warfare and the range of coercive tools
The following is an adaptation of a presentation I made in early November on a panel about economic warfare for the Canadian Association of Security and Intelligence. Thanks for including me! The following will take an expansive view of economic restrictive measures which are increasingly being used for a variety of reasons political and national… Continue reading Some thoughts on economic warfare and the range of coercive tools
Update on the Price Cap: Aiming for Partial Compliance, Underestimating Potential Russian Supply Cuts
This note was originally published Oct 15 2022 as part of my IMF meetings recap. Oil Price Cap, Russia sanctions and Energy Risks On the side lines of the meetings, there were many discussions on the next steps in the economic pressure campaign on Russia and assessment of the unprecedented efforts taken so far. Representatives… Continue reading Update on the Price Cap: Aiming for Partial Compliance, Underestimating Potential Russian Supply Cuts
IMF Meetings: Gloomy Outlook, US Still Committed to Price Cap
This week I attended several conferences, the NABE conference in Chicago, the Columbia University Energy Conference in NYC and part of the IMF/WB meetings in DC. Collectively, they gave the chance to touch base with consensus views on macro economic outlook, geopolitical risks and market interpretations. And that consensus was unsurprisingly quite gloomy. This shouldn’t… Continue reading IMF Meetings: Gloomy Outlook, US Still Committed to Price Cap
OPEC+: Not a mega cut
Today’s OPEC+ meeting confirmed several things. They prefer to boost revenues prices in the face of weak demand. OPEC has little interest in making it easy for the G7 to implement the price cap. There was a need to reset targets to (partly) adjust for massive under production from many producers producers are concerned about… Continue reading OPEC+: Not a mega cut
European ‘perfect storm’: Impacts of energy crisis
In late August, I spoke with Gridnews about the risks to the energy, economic and political risks associated with the energy price spikes in Europe and the globe exacerbated by the conflict with Russia. While Europe has many more policy levers to cushion their populations than poorer countries, the costs will mount, economically and politically.… Continue reading European ‘perfect storm’: Impacts of energy crisis
Ziemba Insights 