On October 7, I was pleased to join the Middle East Institute and Amwaj Media for a discussion about Iran's economy under sanctions and the trend ahead. The discussion coincided with stalled nuclear talks, as maximum pressure sanctions remain mostly in effect, Iran has built up additional nuclear capabilities. Read on or watch the video… Continue reading Iran’s Economy, Sanctions and key Scenarios
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Some Questions About Evergrande, Chinese Real Estate and Global Growth
This week speculation about the possible default of Chinese property company Evergrande contributed to a notable if brief sell-off and much florrid commentary about whether this was a 'Lehman moment'. China-linked assets (especially Iron ore and AUD) sold off as did most risk assets, but the move was quickly reversed at a global level. These… Continue reading Some Questions About Evergrande, Chinese Real Estate and Global Growth
El Salvador, Bitcoin, CBDC and other digital assets
Today bitcoin officially joined the USD as legal tender in El Salvador. While some logistical issues have been addressed since the original announcement, I continue to be skeptical about the benefits and do not expect many others to follow the example. (see my CNBC podcast interview from a few months back). there's still a lot… Continue reading El Salvador, Bitcoin, CBDC and other digital assets
OPEC+: Cohesion harder, as fundamentals tighten
In early July 2021, OPEC+ faced several public challenges to its medium-term supply outlook as it looked to extend its production agreement and allow for a long awaited increase in oil production. On the July 1 meeting the UAE blocked agreement of the near-term agreement (production increases through year end and commitment to current levels… Continue reading OPEC+: Cohesion harder, as fundamentals tighten
OPEC Standoff: Resetting market share
This piece first appeared on the Low Insitute's Interpreter in early July 2021 and concerns the divides between oil exporting nations which are being amplified by the energy transition and uneven recovery. The 1 July OPEC meeting ended in deadlock. Although all the major oil producers agreed in principle to collectively boost production by 400,000… Continue reading OPEC Standoff: Resetting market share
Sanctions Policy Under the Biden Administration: What do we know so far?
In May 2021, I had the fun opportunity to reflect on the first few month of Biden admin sanctions policy with Tatiana Serafin and Nick Gvosdev of the Doorstep podcast sponsored by the Carnegie Council. You can watch the video below or read the transcript in full (some excerpts can be found below). Overall in… Continue reading Sanctions Policy Under the Biden Administration: What do we know so far?
Covidnomics, Policy Response and Coercive Policies
covidnomicsoctDownload A recent presentation on some of the global economic risks, including fiscal drag, another round of lockdowns and some potential policy shifts in the U.S. and whether China will be a major source of demand/credit. Covid-19 has reinforced existing economic and geopolitical frictions, pressured fractured supply chains, dampened migration, amplified investment and export restrictions… Continue reading Covidnomics, Policy Response and Coercive Policies
Looming Questions for the IFI Annual Meetings
Next week’s annual meetings of the IMF and World Bank come at a key inflection point for the global economy as partial recoveries across major economies have stalled and Covid infection rates rising or remaining high in many developed economies and some emerging markets. This post surveys some of the trends I'm watching for at… Continue reading Looming Questions for the IFI Annual Meetings
Global Update: June 2020
This post is adapted from some of my June 2020 presentations on the global outlook, the impact of Covid19 and some US election related policy risks. EM are facing some of the same challenges as DM – major demand shock at home and abroad due to lockdowns, with consumption lagging than production. Many struggle due… Continue reading Global Update: June 2020
Market Exuberance: Thoughts on EM Credit, Oil and Consolidation
Risk assets especially global equity and oil have been rallying of late and Vix has dropped. This piece looks at what has driven this optimism and relief rally, whether its sustainable and where some of the weak credit links remain. What’s driven this optimism? The best explanation is that signs of peaking or decline in… Continue reading Market Exuberance: Thoughts on EM Credit, Oil and Consolidation
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