In late August, I spoke with Gridnews about the risks to the energy, economic and political risks associated with the energy price spikes in Europe and the globe exacerbated by the conflict with Russia. While Europe has many more policy levers to cushion their populations than poorer countries, the costs will mount, economically and politically.… Continue reading European ‘perfect storm’: Impacts of energy crisis
at the start of July I spoke to CNBC Asia about the oil, products and natural gas balances. While there are starting to be some signs of demand destruction, especially in the US where gasoline demand is softening compared to 2021, demand is still near historic highs. Moreover other issues including how to manage the… Continue reading Energy: signs of demand destruction? Do they outstrip supply risks?
In late June 2022, NPR asked me to do a new way of assessing sanctions effectiveness - scoring them. Rather than focused on intensity of impact (on Russian economic or financial markets), effectiveness needs to also consider change in policy or change in capacity not just economic strain. This is also difficult given the fact… Continue reading Scoring sanctions on Russia
In early June, I spoke about the political risks of inflation, the impact of the Russian invasion and more while on a trip to Turkey. The following were my opening remarks, looking at how these different risks - conflict, isolation, sanctions and developing of new supply chains have added to inflationary risks and complicated resilience.… Continue reading Some thoughts on Inflation, the impact of the War and supply chain remapping
In its meeting June 2, OPEC+ agreed to speed up its production hikes, pledging to add 648 thousand barrels a day in July and August, about 200K more than it had signalled previously. This move was mildly positive politically, helping to paper over fraught US-GCC relations, and may be a precondition for a set of… Continue reading OPEC: Putting off Tough Decisions for the Future
I shared some thoughts with the radio program the World and its host Marco Werman. Listen to the interview here or read some of the summary below. I touch on the moderate measures so far (though more are likely coming in the upcoming hours, the shift from deterrence to new triggers and whether there is… Continue reading Some thoughts on sanctions effectiveness on the World
The US and allies have responded to Russia’s formal recognition of occupied regions of Donetsk (DNR) and Luhansk (LHR) and belligerent rhetoric with a “first tranche” of sanctions. These measures, more extensive than some anticipated last night, are nonetheless well short of the pledge to start with the "strongest" measures. This reflects the administration's desire… Continue reading State of Play on Russia Sanctions: What’s Happened, What’s Next?
I've been asked a lot in recent weeks (and especially in the last week) about the potential economic implications of a major US-led sanctions package on Russia. Economic impacts depends not only on US and allied economic policies, but also on Russia's response, including counter-economic measures and military choices, and of course on the decisions… Continue reading Some thoughts about the Potential Economic Impacts of Sanctions on Russia
In late January I had the pleasure of appearing on the Doorstep Podcast to share my views about the risks of sanctions, commodity market disruptions and other trends. What's the willingness to impose sanctions and costs on consumers in Europe and Globally? In a sense, I think the mixed messaging we have seen—particularly out of… Continue reading Sanctions, Export Controls and Potential Commodity Impacts from Russia Ukraine crisis
The February OPEC+ meeting went off without a hitch, with members reiterating their prior plan to stay on track with the 400K/d production increase and doing so in "record time". The quick agreement, reflecting the benefit of monthly meetings and forward guidance, may be one of the last such smooth meetings as OPEC+ run into… Continue reading OPEC+ Balancing Act: Auto Pilot Can’t Go Much Longer