Since the beginning of the year, two major potential downside policy risks have receded, the risks of overtightening of financial conditions due to Fed and other central bank tightening and a further escalation of the tariffs associated with the U.S. China trade war. The combination has led to a strong asset market rally and reversal… Continue reading Global: Clouded Growth, Supportive Monetary Stance
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Mexican Energy: Recalibration or Major Shift
In mid-March, I had the honor of presenting at the Joint AJC-Consulate of Canada-Consulate of Mexican event on Energy Transitions in NYC. The event ranged from issues of energy transition and risk across North America and Globally - a very wide remit. For me, it was an opportunity to take stock of the uncertain energy… Continue reading Mexican Energy: Recalibration or Major Shift
Venezuela: Delineating Some “Complications” Ahead
At last count, over 48 countries have recognized the role of Acting President Juan Guaido of Venezuela, adding further pressure to the flailing regime of President Nicolas Maduro. U.S. sanctions further amplify Venezuela’s loss of market access, for key energy inputs, energy exports and credit for other goods. This piece surveys some of the economic… Continue reading Venezuela: Delineating Some “Complications” Ahead
Some Thoughts on the Russian Sale of U.S. Treasurys
Recent Russian reports provide more color on Russian official sector's move out of the the USD in Q2 of last year. The big focus of the CBR reserves composition report (see thread here) was the move into CNY assets, making Russia is now one of the largest holders of offshore CNY reserve assets. Despite the speeding up… Continue reading Some Thoughts on the Russian Sale of U.S. Treasurys
Thought-provoking Reads 2018
As 2018 winds to an end, and 2019 lookaheads are completed, its time to share a few books that stuck with me this year from the 50 non-fiction books I read or listened to this year. Given my IPE teaching this fall, and ongoing macro risk work for clients, my non-fiction reading was dominated by… Continue reading Thought-provoking Reads 2018
Some Thoughts on the 2019 Outlook
2019 set to be a tougher year... Growth momentum has weakened in the second half of 2018, particularly in European and Asian exporters, who are responding to the end of above potential growth of the last few years, which has moderated final demand growth. Tariffs, restrictions and tighter financing costs have reinforced this trend, making… Continue reading Some Thoughts on the 2019 Outlook
A Few Things I’m Watching For At the IMF/WB meetings
I’m off to the annual meetings of the World Bank and IMF this week, a good chance to take the pulse on global market consensus and the worries of policy makers. Global trade risks and their impact on an already decelerating global economy are likely to top the worry list - with the impact of… Continue reading A Few Things I’m Watching For At the IMF/WB meetings
