Many of us are contemplating lessons over the last year following Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine - I tackled some lessons about sanctions effectiveness and surprises in another post. This one addresses the state of play in Russia's economy and the outlook for sanctions. Overall, with the US government relatively satisfied with the oil price… Continue reading Update on the State of the Russian Economy and Sanctions
Tag: sanctions
One Year on, Assessing the Impacts of Russia’s War Against Ukraine: A Conversation with the Doorstep podcast
At the beginning of February, I had the chance to chat with the hosts of the Doorstep Podcast. Tetiana Serafin and Nick Gvosdev about the state of the global economy, the resilience of the Russian economy and the rerouting of global trade. An excerpt is below but you can watch or read the whole thing… Continue reading One Year on, Assessing the Impacts of Russia’s War Against Ukraine: A Conversation with the Doorstep podcast
Update on the Russian Oil Price Cap: Deadlock on the “Price”
On, 25 November, EU officials have again failed to reach consensus on the price for Russian oil that would allow an exemption from the EU ban on using its services to transport and sell Russian seaborne crude (aka the G7 price cap). Officials have agreed to resume talks next week, a week out from the 5… Continue reading Update on the Russian Oil Price Cap: Deadlock on the “Price”
OPEC+: Not a mega cut
Today’s OPEC+ meeting confirmed several things. They prefer to boost revenues prices in the face of weak demand. OPEC has little interest in making it easy for the G7 to implement the price cap. There was a need to reset targets to (partly) adjust for massive under production from many producers producers are concerned about… Continue reading OPEC+: Not a mega cut
Iran’s Economy, Sanctions and key Scenarios
On October 7, I was pleased to join the Middle East Institute and Amwaj Media for a discussion about Iran's economy under sanctions and the trend ahead. The discussion coincided with stalled nuclear talks, as maximum pressure sanctions remain mostly in effect, Iran has built up additional nuclear capabilities. Read on or watch the video… Continue reading Iran’s Economy, Sanctions and key Scenarios
Iran Sanctions: Sell the Fact? What to Watch for on EU, China and Upcoming Energy Measures
Today, the U.S. provided more details on the reimposition of selected financial sanctions, clarifying decisions taken by virtue its repudiation of the JCPOA some months ago. Formally the sanctions, which come into effect today, include measures limiting Iranian access to USD, precious metals including gold, restriction on the auto trade, industry and shipping. The updated… Continue reading Iran Sanctions: Sell the Fact? What to Watch for on EU, China and Upcoming Energy Measures
OPEC Compromise: Can Kicking Buys Time for Sanctions Rollout and Demand
Last week, OPEC+ ministers managed to come to a consensus after days of contentious discussions in Vienna, achieving the goal of formally keeping the OPEC+ alliance together, but failing to solve some of the thorny issues between key members including Saudi Arabia and Iran. The final agreement, which commits the group to reversing recent overcompliance… Continue reading OPEC Compromise: Can Kicking Buys Time for Sanctions Rollout and Demand
Iran and risks to the Sanctions Regime
I've been spending a lot of time (maybe too much time) in the last few weeks thinking about the Iran deal and economic and political impact of the U.S. exit. I'm not alone, judging by the sheer number of quickly organized JCPOA exit panels in D.C. last week. If people seemed insufficiently worried about the… Continue reading Iran and risks to the Sanctions Regime
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