On, 25 November, EU officials have again failed to reach consensus on the price for Russian oil that would allow an exemption from the EU ban on using its services to transport and sell Russian seaborne crude (aka the G7 price cap). Officials have agreed to resume talks next week, a week out from the 5… Continue reading Update on the Russian Oil Price Cap: Deadlock on the “Price”
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Lessons from the Work of William T Ziemba
In early November, I was honored to speak at the Annual Quant Insights Conference hosted by the Certificate of Quantitative Finance about some of the work and legacy of my father William Ziemba who passed away earlier this year (obit here). Dad was an academic of stochastic programing and financial optimization who applied much of… Continue reading Lessons from the Work of William T Ziemba
Some thoughts on economic warfare and the range of coercive tools
The following is an adaptation of a presentation I made in early November on a panel about economic warfare for the Canadian Association of Security and Intelligence. Thanks for including me! The following will take an expansive view of economic restrictive measures which are increasingly being used for a variety of reasons political and national… Continue reading Some thoughts on economic warfare and the range of coercive tools
IMF Meetings: Gloomy Outlook, US Still Committed to Price Cap
This week I attended several conferences, the NABE conference in Chicago, the Columbia University Energy Conference in NYC and part of the IMF/WB meetings in DC. Collectively, they gave the chance to touch base with consensus views on macro economic outlook, geopolitical risks and market interpretations. And that consensus was unsurprisingly quite gloomy. This shouldn’t… Continue reading IMF Meetings: Gloomy Outlook, US Still Committed to Price Cap
Some thoughts on Inflation, the impact of the War and supply chain remapping
In early June, I spoke about the political risks of inflation, the impact of the Russian invasion and more while on a trip to Turkey. The following were my opening remarks, looking at how these different risks - conflict, isolation, sanctions and developing of new supply chains have added to inflationary risks and complicated resilience.… Continue reading Some thoughts on Inflation, the impact of the War and supply chain remapping
Some thoughts on sanctions effectiveness on the World
I shared some thoughts with the radio program the World and its host Marco Werman. Listen to the interview here or read some of the summary below. I touch on the moderate measures so far (though more are likely coming in the upcoming hours, the shift from deterrence to new triggers and whether there is… Continue reading Some thoughts on sanctions effectiveness on the World
State of Play on Russia Sanctions: What’s Happened, What’s Next?
The US and allies have responded to Russia’s formal recognition of occupied regions of Donetsk (DNR) and Luhansk (LHR) and belligerent rhetoric with a “first tranche” of sanctions. These measures, more extensive than some anticipated last night, are nonetheless well short of the pledge to start with the "strongest" measures. This reflects the administration's desire… Continue reading State of Play on Russia Sanctions: What’s Happened, What’s Next?
Some thoughts about the Potential Economic Impacts of Sanctions on Russia
I've been asked a lot in recent weeks (and especially in the last week) about the potential economic implications of a major US-led sanctions package on Russia. Economic impacts depends not only on US and allied economic policies, but also on Russia's response, including counter-economic measures and military choices, and of course on the decisions… Continue reading Some thoughts about the Potential Economic Impacts of Sanctions on Russia
OPEC+ Balancing Act: Auto Pilot Can’t Go Much Longer
The February OPEC+ meeting went off without a hitch, with members reiterating their prior plan to stay on track with the 400K/d production increase and doing so in "record time". The quick agreement, reflecting the benefit of monthly meetings and forward guidance, may be one of the last such smooth meetings as OPEC+ run into… Continue reading OPEC+ Balancing Act: Auto Pilot Can’t Go Much Longer
Talking Sanctions, Commodity Disruption and Global Growth Risks
In late January, I was delighted to chat with the hosts of the Doorstep podcast. we covered what's likely in terms of sanctions, how effective they might be, what risks of commodity disruption (energy, grains and fertilizer) and why I'm concerned more about a growth crisis than a debt crisis as the policy mix shifts… Continue reading Talking Sanctions, Commodity Disruption and Global Growth Risks
Ziemba Insights 