The Tariffs are here. Or they seem to be. President Trump signed executive orders over the weekend imposing import taxes on goods from Canada, Mexico and China, as he has threatened since late November. If implemented, these are only likely the first of many waves of tariffs, but Trump is definitely starting off with a bang, imposing… Continue reading The Tariffs are Here: What do we Know?
Tag: economy
What to Watch for in the Tariff Announcements
Tariffs are coming. Maybe tomorrow? Some reading/questions to interpret the results. The tariff “will he won’t he” cycle continued on January 31 as the Trump administration continues to insist that tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China are coming February 1. This followed previous reporting that they would only come into effect March 1. The trigger… Continue reading What to Watch for in the Tariff Announcements
Day 1 issues: What I’m watching for in first days of the Trump administration
Incoming president Trump has labelled a lot of items day 1 issues and announced plans to sign many many executive orders on the 20th and in the early days of his administration. This piece tries to summarize what we now know about key economic (energy and trade) themes and what I'll be watching for in… Continue reading Day 1 issues: What I’m watching for in first days of the Trump administration
Thought-provoking reads 2024
This year’s list of top reads includes several on trade, environmental bottlenecks and foreign policy, as well as some compelling biographies and books on food and art. I read and listened to plenty of fiction also this year, but it was the non-fiction books that lingered with me. My wine books list can be found… Continue reading Thought-provoking reads 2024
Good News Bad News for Critical Minerals
In early November just after the election, I joined the Hudson Institute and Macdonald Laurier Institute to talk about US-Canada Energy supply chains. At the time, the degree of tariff threats and annexation seemed hard to fathom. Nonetheless it seems worthwhile to share. I focused my remarks on critical mineral supply chains, a segment of… Continue reading Good News Bad News for Critical Minerals
Some thoughts on the Trump Victory and Red Wave
Former President Trump has secured a sizeable victory in the 5 November election, accompanied by a sizeable if not filibuster-proof GOP majority in the Senate. He will see this as a strong mandate, which will likely make it easier to get nominees confirmed and proceed with many parts of his agenda, although the fiscal space… Continue reading Some thoughts on the Trump Victory and Red Wave
IMF Takeaways: Election and Geopolitical Worries Overshadow
I’m headed home from the latest IMF/WB annual meetings in DC. As always it was a great place to catch up with old friends and market contacts and get a sense of market and economic “vibes”. Coming so close to the US elections, where polls are so so close, there was an odd sense of… Continue reading IMF Takeaways: Election and Geopolitical Worries Overshadow
Some things I’m Watching at the BRICS+ and IMF Meetings
Next week brings the confluence of the BRICS Summit in Kazan, Russia and the IMF/World Bank Annual meetings in Washington. The timing seems unlikely to be coincidental but will make for a lot of global macro and geopolitical headlines. As I’ll be watching for news from the first and attending the latter (reach out if… Continue reading Some things I’m Watching at the BRICS+ and IMF Meetings
Iranian oil in the cross-hairs: Physical, Cyber or Sanctions attacks? Potential Impact on oil and other markets
Since Iran sent missiles into Israeli territory last Tuesday night global oil markets have been focused on the risk of attacks on Iranian energy infrastructure. Oil prices rallied over $10 quite rapidly reversing previous sharp declines and commentators have a wide range of price forecasts. This note tries to summarize a few of the potential… Continue reading Iranian oil in the cross-hairs: Physical, Cyber or Sanctions attacks? Potential Impact on oil and other markets
Saudi Arabia: Inward Focus as Global Oil Demand Remains Sluggish
With global oil demand growth slow, Saudi Arabian authorities are pulling assets from abroad, unlocking assets from the national balance sheet and prioritizing local development projects to support growth. Looking ahead, the outlook will stabilize as the macro hit from the past production cuts eases, but prolonged higher interest rates and prioritization of local projects… Continue reading Saudi Arabia: Inward Focus as Global Oil Demand Remains Sluggish
Ziemba Insights 