The protests in Kazakhstan have increased the focus on the impacts of rising food and fuel prices across many countries. The spike in natural gas prices and power costs across Eurasia has strained many countries, and amplified the impact of already increasing prices that related to supply chain disruption. While a badly executed fuel price… Continue reading Some thoughts on Kazakhstan, commodity prices and policy Space
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Thought provoking reads: 2021 edition
With the end of the year comes time to review what books spoke to me this year. There's a good chance if I know you well that I may well have waxed on about one of more of the books below. Let me know what you liked (or didn't like) last year and what should… Continue reading Thought provoking reads: 2021 edition
OPEC+ Sticks to Plans, Avoids Difficult Decisions for Now
As expected, OPEC stuck to its plan of gradual increases at the December meeting, but left its options open by failing to adjourn the meeting. This allows the group, if necessary to make inter-meeting adjustments, or even for individual members to unilaterally decide to make adjustments. Ultimately, oil is likely to remain in the current… Continue reading OPEC+ Sticks to Plans, Avoids Difficult Decisions for Now
An Update on Gulf Sovereign Wealth Funds
On October 14, I was pleased to join the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington and Abana for a panel on Gulf Sovereign Funds. While sovereign funds have been key actors in the region for decades, their role takes on even more importance as Gulf countries navigate towards economic and energy transition and seek to… Continue reading An Update on Gulf Sovereign Wealth Funds
Iran’s Economy, Sanctions and key Scenarios
On October 7, I was pleased to join the Middle East Institute and Amwaj Media for a discussion about Iran's economy under sanctions and the trend ahead. The discussion coincided with stalled nuclear talks, as maximum pressure sanctions remain mostly in effect, Iran has built up additional nuclear capabilities. Read on or watch the video… Continue reading Iran’s Economy, Sanctions and key Scenarios
Some Questions About Evergrande, Chinese Real Estate and Global Growth
This week speculation about the possible default of Chinese property company Evergrande contributed to a notable if brief sell-off and much florrid commentary about whether this was a 'Lehman moment'. China-linked assets (especially Iron ore and AUD) sold off as did most risk assets, but the move was quickly reversed at a global level. These… Continue reading Some Questions About Evergrande, Chinese Real Estate and Global Growth
El Salvador, Bitcoin, CBDC and other digital assets
Today bitcoin officially joined the USD as legal tender in El Salvador. While some logistical issues have been addressed since the original announcement, I continue to be skeptical about the benefits and do not expect many others to follow the example. (see my CNBC podcast interview from a few months back). there's still a lot… Continue reading El Salvador, Bitcoin, CBDC and other digital assets
OPEC+: Cohesion harder, as fundamentals tighten
In early July 2021, OPEC+ faced several public challenges to its medium-term supply outlook as it looked to extend its production agreement and allow for a long awaited increase in oil production. On the July 1 meeting the UAE blocked agreement of the near-term agreement (production increases through year end and commitment to current levels… Continue reading OPEC+: Cohesion harder, as fundamentals tighten
OPEC Standoff: Resetting market share
This piece first appeared on the Low Insitute's Interpreter in early July 2021 and concerns the divides between oil exporting nations which are being amplified by the energy transition and uneven recovery. The 1 July OPEC meeting ended in deadlock. Although all the major oil producers agreed in principle to collectively boost production by 400,000… Continue reading OPEC Standoff: Resetting market share
Sanctions Policy Under the Biden Administration: What do we know so far?
In May 2021, I had the fun opportunity to reflect on the first few month of Biden admin sanctions policy with Tatiana Serafin and Nick Gvosdev of the Doorstep podcast sponsored by the Carnegie Council. You can watch the video below or read the transcript in full (some excerpts can be found below). Overall in… Continue reading Sanctions Policy Under the Biden Administration: What do we know so far?
Ziemba Insights 