Update on the Price Cap: Aiming for Partial Compliance, Underestimating Potential Russian Supply Cuts

This note was originally published Oct 15 2022 as part of my IMF meetings recap. Oil Price Cap, Russia sanctions and Energy Risks On the side lines of the meetings, there were many discussions on the next steps in the economic pressure campaign on Russia and assessment of the unprecedented efforts taken so far. Representatives… Continue reading Update on the Price Cap: Aiming for Partial Compliance, Underestimating Potential Russian Supply Cuts

OPEC+: Not a mega cut

Today‚Äôs OPEC+ meeting confirmed several things.  They prefer to boost revenues prices in the face of weak demand.  OPEC has little interest in making it easy for the G7 to implement the price cap.  There was a need to reset targets to (partly) adjust for massive under production from many producers producers are concerned about… Continue reading OPEC+: Not a mega cut

Energy: signs of demand destruction? Do they outstrip supply risks?

at the start of July I spoke to CNBC Asia about the oil, products and natural gas balances. While there are starting to be some signs of demand destruction, especially in the US where gasoline demand is softening compared to 2021, demand is still near historic highs. Moreover other issues including how to manage the… Continue reading Energy: signs of demand destruction? Do they outstrip supply risks?

Scoring sanctions on Russia

In late June 2022, NPR asked me to do a new way of assessing sanctions effectiveness - scoring them. Rather than focused on intensity of impact (on Russian economic or financial markets), effectiveness needs to also consider change in policy or change in capacity not just economic strain. This is also difficult given the fact… Continue reading Scoring sanctions on Russia

OPEC: Putting off Tough Decisions for the Future

In its meeting June 2, OPEC+ agreed to speed up its production hikes, pledging to add 648 thousand barrels a day in July and August, about 200K more than it had signalled previously. This move was mildly positive politically, helping to paper over fraught US-GCC relations, and may be a precondition for a set of… Continue reading OPEC: Putting off Tough Decisions for the Future

An Update on Gulf Sovereign Wealth Funds

On October 14, I was pleased to join the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington and Abana for a panel on Gulf Sovereign Funds. While sovereign funds have been key actors in the region for decades, their role takes on even more importance as Gulf countries navigate towards economic and energy transition and seek to… Continue reading An Update on Gulf Sovereign Wealth Funds

Iran’s Economy, Sanctions and key Scenarios

On October 7, I was pleased to join the Middle East Institute and Amwaj Media for a discussion about Iran's economy under sanctions and the trend ahead. The discussion coincided with stalled nuclear talks, as maximum pressure sanctions remain mostly in effect, Iran has built up additional nuclear capabilities. Read on or watch the video… Continue reading Iran’s Economy, Sanctions and key Scenarios

OPEC+: Cohesion harder, as fundamentals tighten

In early July 2021, OPEC+ faced several public challenges to its medium-term supply outlook as it looked to extend its production agreement and allow for a long awaited increase in oil production. On the July 1 meeting the UAE blocked agreement of the near-term agreement (production increases through year end and commitment to current levels… Continue reading OPEC+: Cohesion harder, as fundamentals tighten

OPEC Standoff: Resetting market share

This piece first appeared on the Low Insitute's Interpreter in early July 2021 and concerns the divides between oil exporting nations which are being amplified by the energy transition and uneven recovery. The 1 July OPEC meeting ended in deadlock. Although all the major oil producers agreed in principle to collectively boost production by 400,000… Continue reading OPEC Standoff: Resetting market share