An Update on Gulf Sovereign Wealth Funds

On October 14, I was pleased to join the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington and Abana for a panel on Gulf Sovereign Funds. While sovereign funds have been key actors in the region for decades, their role takes on even more importance as Gulf countries navigate towards economic and energy transition and seek to… Continue reading An Update on Gulf Sovereign Wealth Funds

Iran’s Economy, Sanctions and key Scenarios

On October 7, I was pleased to join the Middle East Institute and Amwaj Media for a discussion about Iran's economy under sanctions and the trend ahead. The discussion coincided with stalled nuclear talks, as maximum pressure sanctions remain mostly in effect, Iran has built up additional nuclear capabilities. Read on or watch the video… Continue reading Iran’s Economy, Sanctions and key Scenarios

OPEC+: Cohesion harder, as fundamentals tighten

In early July 2021, OPEC+ faced several public challenges to its medium-term supply outlook as it looked to extend its production agreement and allow for a long awaited increase in oil production. On the July 1 meeting the UAE blocked agreement of the near-term agreement (production increases through year end and commitment to current levels… Continue reading OPEC+: Cohesion harder, as fundamentals tighten

OPEC Standoff: Resetting market share

This piece first appeared on the Low Insitute's Interpreter in early July 2021 and concerns the divides between oil exporting nations which are being amplified by the energy transition and uneven recovery. The 1 July OPEC meeting ended in deadlock. Although all the major oil producers agreed in principle to collectively boost production by 400,000… Continue reading OPEC Standoff: Resetting market share

Covidnomics, Policy Response and Coercive Policies

covidnomicsoctDownload A recent presentation on some of the global economic risks, including fiscal drag, another round of lockdowns and some potential policy shifts in the U.S. and whether China will be a major source of demand/credit. Covid-19 has reinforced existing economic and geopolitical frictions, pressured fractured supply chains, dampened migration, amplified investment and export restrictions… Continue reading Covidnomics, Policy Response and Coercive Policies

Economic Challenges of Covid19: Deepening Recessions

COVID19 and its policy response has been damaging to global growth and a sharp global recession is now the base case. Most major economies are likely to experience sharp recessions as economic activity is shut down to avoid over-taxing the health care system. Globally this suggests rolling recessions, albeit very close on their heels beginning… Continue reading Economic Challenges of Covid19: Deepening Recessions

Potential Longer-term Implications of Covid19

I recently updated some macro scenarios around the impact of the novel coronavirus (covid19) which update my initial thoughts and my early 2020 risk scenarios. This companion post looks at some of trends which will shape not only the near-term scenarios but may shape any eventual recovery. Many economists are expecting a V-shaped recovery when the… Continue reading Potential Longer-term Implications of Covid19

Assessing the Next Wave of Macro Stress from Covid19

This piece updates my earlier analysis (late January) on Covid19 and is accompanied by a short note that looks in more detail at some longer term trends. My January analysis highlighted the importance of the policy response including the quarantines and travel cancellations in driving economic impact, making the impact unprecedented. The global economic impact began… Continue reading Assessing the Next Wave of Macro Stress from Covid19

Global Scenarios: What Can go Wrong?

Since early December, global market sentiment has been quite upbeat, as developments seen as risks including a tit-for-tat tariff escalation, an acute, unplanned and hard Brexit and (premature) monetary tightening and credit stress receded.  These reinforced our view that global recession was unlikely, though growth remains relatively sluggish. All these trends and continued monetary support… Continue reading Global Scenarios: What Can go Wrong?