Economic Challenges of Covid19: Deepening Recessions

COVID19 and its policy response has been damaging to global growth and a sharp global recession is now the base case. Most major economies are likely to experience sharp recessions as economic activity is shut down to avoid over-taxing the health care system. Globally this suggests rolling recessions, albeit very close on their heels beginning… Continue reading Economic Challenges of Covid19: Deepening Recessions

Potential Longer-term Implications of Covid19

I recently updated some macro scenarios around the impact of the novel coronavirus (covid19) which update my initial thoughts and my early 2020 risk scenarios. This companion post looks at some of trends which will shape not only the near-term scenarios but may shape any eventual recovery. Many economists are expecting a V-shaped recovery when the… Continue reading Potential Longer-term Implications of Covid19

Assessing the Next Wave of Macro Stress from Covid19

This piece updates my earlier analysis (late January) on Covid19 and is accompanied by a short note that looks in more detail at some longer term trends. My January analysis highlighted the importance of the policy response including the quarantines and travel cancellations in driving economic impact, making the impact unprecedented. The global economic impact began… Continue reading Assessing the Next Wave of Macro Stress from Covid19

Global Scenarios: What Can go Wrong?

Since early December, global market sentiment has been quite upbeat, as developments seen as risks including a tit-for-tat tariff escalation, an acute, unplanned and hard Brexit and (premature) monetary tightening and credit stress receded.  These reinforced our view that global recession was unlikely, though growth remains relatively sluggish. All these trends and continued monetary support… Continue reading Global Scenarios: What Can go Wrong?

Saudi Arabia: Trying to Hold the Line

Saudi Arabia’s budget statement for 2020 was approved December 9, the end of a busy week for the country and its energy sector, including the prior week’s OPEC+ meeting and key developments in the long-awaited IPO of Saudi Aramco, its state-owned energy company. The budget takes a relatively conservative stance on both oil and non-oil… Continue reading Saudi Arabia: Trying to Hold the Line

Lingering Questions post G20

The major market takeaway from the G20 is the U.S.-China trade truce which defers the imposition of new tariffs from the U.S. and keeps/return the two countries to negotiations. This avoids a negative outcome of tit for tat tariffs in the near term, confirming some recent market optimism, but leaves many unanswered questions. Among areas… Continue reading Lingering Questions post G20

Mexican Energy: Recalibration or Major Shift

In mid-March, I had the honor of presenting at the Joint AJC-Consulate of Canada-Consulate of Mexican event on Energy Transitions in NYC. The event ranged from issues of energy transition and risk across North America and Globally - a very wide remit. For me, it was an opportunity to take stock of the uncertain energy… Continue reading Mexican Energy: Recalibration or Major Shift

A Few Things I’m Watching For At the IMF/WB meetings

I’m off to the annual meetings of the World Bank and IMF this week, a good chance to take the pulse on global market consensus and the worries of policy makers. Global trade risks and their impact on an already decelerating global economy are likely to top the worry list - with the impact of… Continue reading A Few Things I’m Watching For At the IMF/WB meetings

Russia Economic Resilience to Sanctions: Senate Testimony

On September 6. I testified in front of the Senate Banking Committee on the resilience of Russia's economy to sanctions, the recent development of new economic and financial cushions and the risk of unintended consequences from new sanctions: The full testimony can be found here. Russia’s economy has largely adjusted to sanctions imposed by the… Continue reading Russia Economic Resilience to Sanctions: Senate Testimony

Iran Sanctions: Sell the Fact? What to Watch for on EU, China and Upcoming Energy Measures

Today, the U.S. provided more details on the reimposition of selected financial sanctions, clarifying decisions taken by virtue its repudiation of the JCPOA some months ago. Formally the sanctions, which come into effect today,  include measures limiting Iranian access to USD, precious metals including gold, restriction on the auto trade, industry and shipping. The updated… Continue reading Iran Sanctions: Sell the Fact? What to Watch for on EU, China and Upcoming Energy Measures