Lingering Questions post G20

The major market takeaway from the G20 is the U.S.-China trade truce which defers the imposition of new tariffs from the U.S. and keeps/return the two countries to negotiations. This avoids a negative outcome of tit for tat tariffs in the near term, confirming some recent market optimism, but leaves many unanswered questions. Among areas… Continue reading Lingering Questions post G20

Mexican Energy: Recalibration or Major Shift

In mid-March, I had the honor of presenting at the Joint AJC-Consulate of Canada-Consulate of Mexican event on Energy Transitions in NYC. The event ranged from issues of energy transition and risk across North America and Globally - a very wide remit. For me, it was an opportunity to take stock of the uncertain energy… Continue reading Mexican Energy: Recalibration or Major Shift

A Few Things I’m Watching For At the IMF/WB meetings

I’m off to the annual meetings of the World Bank and IMF this week, a good chance to take the pulse on global market consensus and the worries of policy makers. Global trade risks and their impact on an already decelerating global economy are likely to top the worry list - with the impact of… Continue reading A Few Things I’m Watching For At the IMF/WB meetings

Russia Economic Resilience to Sanctions: Senate Testimony

On September 6. I testified in front of the Senate Banking Committee on the resilience of Russia's economy to sanctions, the recent development of new economic and financial cushions and the risk of unintended consequences from new sanctions: The full testimony can be found here. Russia’s economy has largely adjusted to sanctions imposed by the… Continue reading Russia Economic Resilience to Sanctions: Senate Testimony

Iran Sanctions: Sell the Fact? What to Watch for on EU, China and Upcoming Energy Measures

Today, the U.S. provided more details on the reimposition of selected financial sanctions, clarifying decisions taken by virtue its repudiation of the JCPOA some months ago. Formally the sanctions, which come into effect today,  include measures limiting Iranian access to USD, precious metals including gold, restriction on the auto trade, industry and shipping. The updated… Continue reading Iran Sanctions: Sell the Fact? What to Watch for on EU, China and Upcoming Energy Measures

Turkey Sanctions: Some Things to Watch

The U.S. imposed financial sanctions on two key Turkish minsters August 1, blocking any U.S. transactions and assets for the ministers of Interior and Justice on grounds of continuing to imprison American Minister Andrew Brunson. Unsurprisingly Turkish assets especially the lira, sold off sharply on the announcement as uncertainty around sanctions reinforces other pre-existing stresses… Continue reading Turkey Sanctions: Some Things to Watch

OPEC Compromise: Can Kicking Buys Time for Sanctions Rollout and Demand

Last week, OPEC+ ministers managed to come to a consensus after days of contentious discussions in Vienna, achieving the goal of formally keeping the OPEC+ alliance together, but failing to solve some of the thorny issues between key members including Saudi Arabia and Iran. The final agreement, which commits the group to reversing recent overcompliance… Continue reading OPEC Compromise: Can Kicking Buys Time for Sanctions Rollout and Demand