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This week I attended several conferences, the NABE conference in Chicago, the Columbia University Energy Conference in NYC and part of the IMF/WB meetings in DC. Collectively, they gave the chance to touch base with consensus views on macro economic outlook, geopolitical risks and market interpretations. And that consensus was  unsurprisingly quite gloomy. This shouldn’t… Continue reading IMF Meetings: Gloomy Outlook, US Still Committed to Price Cap →

In early June, I spoke about the political risks of inflation, the impact of the Russian invasion and more while on a trip to Turkey. The following were my opening remarks, looking at how these different risks - conflict, isolation, sanctions and developing of new supply chains have added to inflationary risks and complicated resilience.… Continue reading Some thoughts on Inflation, the impact of the War and supply chain remapping →

I shared some thoughts with the radio program the World and its host Marco Werman. Listen to the interview here or read some of the summary below. I touch on the moderate measures so far (though more are likely coming in the upcoming hours, the shift from deterrence to new triggers and whether there is… Continue reading Some thoughts on sanctions effectiveness on the World →

The US and allies have responded to Russia’s formal recognition of occupied regions of Donetsk (DNR) and Luhansk (LHR) and belligerent rhetoric with a “first tranche” of sanctions. These measures, more extensive than some anticipated last night, are nonetheless well short of the pledge to start with the "strongest" measures. This reflects the administration's desire… Continue reading State of Play on Russia Sanctions: What’s Happened, What’s Next? →

I've been asked a lot in recent weeks (and especially in the last week) about the potential economic implications of a major US-led sanctions package on Russia. Economic impacts depends not only on US and allied economic policies, but also on Russia's response, including counter-economic measures and military choices, and of course on the decisions… Continue reading Some thoughts about the Potential Economic Impacts of Sanctions on Russia →

The February OPEC+ meeting went off without a hitch, with members reiterating their prior plan to stay on track with the 400K/d production increase and doing so in "record time". The quick agreement, reflecting the benefit of monthly meetings and forward guidance, may be one of the last such smooth meetings as OPEC+ run into… Continue reading OPEC+ Balancing Act: Auto Pilot Can’t Go Much Longer →

In late January, I was delighted to chat with the hosts of the Doorstep podcast. we covered what's likely in terms of sanctions, how effective they might be, what risks of commodity disruption (energy, grains and fertilizer) and why I'm concerned more about a growth crisis than a debt crisis as the policy mix shifts… Continue reading Talking Sanctions, Commodity Disruption and Global Growth Risks →

The protests in Kazakhstan have increased the focus on the impacts of rising food and fuel prices across many countries. The spike in natural gas prices and power costs across Eurasia has strained many countries, and amplified the impact of already increasing prices that related to supply chain disruption. While a badly executed fuel price… Continue reading Some thoughts on Kazakhstan, commodity prices and policy Space →

With the end of the year comes time to review what books spoke to me this year. There's a good chance if I know you well that I may well have waxed on about one of more of the books below. Let me know what you liked (or didn't like) last year and what should… Continue reading Thought provoking reads: 2021 edition →

As expected, OPEC stuck to its plan of gradual increases at the December meeting, but left its options open by failing to adjourn the meeting. This allows the group, if necessary to make inter-meeting adjustments, or even for individual members to unilaterally decide to make adjustments. Ultimately, oil is likely to remain in the current… Continue reading OPEC+ Sticks to Plans, Avoids Difficult Decisions for Now →