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The February OPEC+ meeting went off without a hitch, with members reiterating their prior plan to stay on track with the 400K/d production increase and doing so in "record time". The quick agreement, reflecting the benefit of monthly meetings and forward guidance, may be one of the last such smooth meetings as OPEC+ run into… Continue reading OPEC+ Balancing Act: Auto Pilot Can’t Go Much Longer →

In late January, I was delighted to chat with the hosts of the Doorstep podcast. we covered what's likely in terms of sanctions, how effective they might be, what risks of commodity disruption (energy, grains and fertilizer) and why I'm concerned more about a growth crisis than a debt crisis as the policy mix shifts… Continue reading Talking Sanctions, Commodity Disruption and Global Growth Risks →

The protests in Kazakhstan have increased the focus on the impacts of rising food and fuel prices across many countries. The spike in natural gas prices and power costs across Eurasia has strained many countries, and amplified the impact of already increasing prices that related to supply chain disruption. While a badly executed fuel price… Continue reading Some thoughts on Kazakhstan, commodity prices and policy Space →

With the end of the year comes time to review what books spoke to me this year. There's a good chance if I know you well that I may well have waxed on about one of more of the books below. Let me know what you liked (or didn't like) last year and what should… Continue reading Thought provoking reads: 2021 edition →

As expected, OPEC stuck to its plan of gradual increases at the December meeting, but left its options open by failing to adjourn the meeting. This allows the group, if necessary to make inter-meeting adjustments, or even for individual members to unilaterally decide to make adjustments. Ultimately, oil is likely to remain in the current… Continue reading OPEC+ Sticks to Plans, Avoids Difficult Decisions for Now →

This week speculation about the possible default of Chinese property company Evergrande contributed to a notable if brief sell-off and much florrid commentary about whether this was a 'Lehman moment'. China-linked assets (especially Iron ore and AUD) sold off as did most risk assets, but the move was quickly reversed at a global level. These… Continue reading Some Questions About Evergrande, Chinese Real Estate and Global Growth →

Today bitcoin officially joined the USD as legal tender in El Salvador. While some logistical issues have been addressed since the original announcement, I continue to be skeptical about the benefits and do not expect many others to follow the example. (see my CNBC podcast interview from a few months back). there's still a lot… Continue reading El Salvador, Bitcoin, CBDC and other digital assets →

Risk assets  especially global equity and oil have been rallying of late and Vix has dropped. This piece looks at what has driven this optimism and relief rally, whether its sustainable and where some of the weak credit links remain. What’s driven this optimism? The best explanation is that signs of peaking or decline in… Continue reading Market Exuberance: Thoughts on EM Credit, Oil and Consolidation →