The US finally did “something” in response to Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro’s noncompliance with the Democracy Agreement signed last fall that led to partial sanctions relief on energy, select debt and gold trade. In recent weeks the Venezuelan government has imprisoned opposition members, and the Supreme Court ruling that banned joint opposition Candidate Machado from running… Continue reading Venezuela Sanctions: Threats of Energy Reversal
Category: Uncategorized
Are Markets Underestimating the Economic Risks from the Middle Eastern Conflict?
Since October 7, many have asked about the economic risks of the escalating and broadening conflict in the Middle East. Beyond the countries immediately involved, the risks that move the global economic needle linked to the global oil and gas balances, and in the last month, shipping costs. Higher Shipping Costs are Here to Stay,… Continue reading Are Markets Underestimating the Economic Risks from the Middle Eastern Conflict?
Thought-Provoking Reads 2023
This years top reads included a few on how supply chains are being remapped, critical minerals supply chains, the shifting global economy, history of Chinese and Spanish languages and art history. Most were non-fiction. All of these books made me think - and I hope some may be thought-provoking for you too. My rule is… Continue reading Thought-Provoking Reads 2023
Some thoughts on Russian oil Price Cap and oil markets
At the beginning of December, the oil price cap and the EU bans on transporting Russian oil hit the one year mark. This was rightly “commemorated” with a lot of analysis about the limited effectiveness of the cap and Russian energy sanctions, particularly since mid 2023 when prices rose with OPEC+back in the drivers seat.… Continue reading Some thoughts on Russian oil Price Cap and oil markets
Argentina: Difficult Choices Ahead
Following the close election result in Argentina, President-Elect Milei now faces the difficult decisions of sequencing and meeting his election promises which ranged from cutting ties with China l(dangerous given debts and trade) Brazil (ditto given bilateral trade and other regional issues, dollarizing (unrealistic given lack of dollars) and eliminating the central bank. This piece… Continue reading Argentina: Difficult Choices Ahead
What I’m watching at APEC: US-China and What Sort of Communication:
This post summarizes some things I’m watching for/expecting at the ongoing APEC meetings. The long-rumored, finally confirmed planned meeting of Xi Jinping and Joe Biden has put much more focus on APEC than in past years. The meeting will be proceeded by several other high-level US China meetings, as well as other bilateral (watch US-Indonesia)… Continue reading What I’m watching at APEC: US-China and What Sort of Communication:
Oil Outlook: Jockeying of Sanctioned jurisdictions adds little oil, Sluggish demand keeps OPEC+ Cuts
The oil market is being buffeted by uncertainties on the demand side, notably from China, and questions about sanctions enforcement on the supply side. The big drivers continue to be OPEC+ cuts, which are offsetting some gains from those countries not bound by cuts both in and outside OPEC+. We continue to expect, along with… Continue reading Oil Outlook: Jockeying of Sanctioned jurisdictions adds little oil, Sluggish demand keeps OPEC+ Cuts
Some Thoughts on Turkey
The recent inflation prints in Turkey underscore the urgency of the policy tightening path that local Economic policymakers have been implementing and the need to continue on this path. Simsek and Erkan are trying to front-load the adjustment to try to avoid making things worse. This suggests economic conditions will be tighter and tougher in the… Continue reading Some Thoughts on Turkey
Turkey: TRY adjustment long in coming, but broader macro policy still unclear
Many of the points in this commentary were discussed on CNBC on June 8 2023. After months of running down its reserves ahead of the recent elections, even those borrowed from local banks, Turkish authorities, led by new Economic Mehmet Simsek seem to be letting the lira go, allowing it to weaken sharply to try… Continue reading Turkey: TRY adjustment long in coming, but broader macro policy still unclear
Unintended Consequences of Sanctions
I recently published a review of two important books on economic sanctions, their intended and unintended consequences and how they interact with other political and economic trends. Read an excerpt below or the whole piece at this link https://www.lawfareblog.com/unintended-consequences-economic-sanctions Economic sanctions are being used more and more often but also face more questions of effectiveness,… Continue reading Unintended Consequences of Sanctions
Ziemba Insights 