It's always tough to look into the policy crystal ball... all the more so with the incoming administration. But here's an attempt on the sanctions side to map recent trends. What are you watching? With the Trump administration set to take office soon, there are many questions about the evolution of financial sanctions policies and… Continue reading A Look into the Sanctions Crystal Ball
Tag: russia
Thought-provoking reads 2024
This year’s list of top reads includes several on trade, environmental bottlenecks and foreign policy, as well as some compelling biographies and books on food and art. I read and listened to plenty of fiction also this year, but it was the non-fiction books that lingered with me. My wine books list can be found… Continue reading Thought-provoking reads 2024
Some things I’m Watching at the BRICS+ and IMF Meetings
Next week brings the confluence of the BRICS Summit in Kazan, Russia and the IMF/World Bank Annual meetings in Washington. The timing seems unlikely to be coincidental but will make for a lot of global macro and geopolitical headlines. As I’ll be watching for news from the first and attending the latter (reach out if… Continue reading Some things I’m Watching at the BRICS+ and IMF Meetings
Iranian oil in the cross-hairs: Physical, Cyber or Sanctions attacks? Potential Impact on oil and other markets
Since Iran sent missiles into Israeli territory last Tuesday night global oil markets have been focused on the risk of attacks on Iranian energy infrastructure. Oil prices rallied over $10 quite rapidly reversing previous sharp declines and commentators have a wide range of price forecasts. This note tries to summarize a few of the potential… Continue reading Iranian oil in the cross-hairs: Physical, Cyber or Sanctions attacks? Potential Impact on oil and other markets
Some thoughts on Russian oil Price Cap and oil markets
At the beginning of December, the oil price cap and the EU bans on transporting Russian oil hit the one year mark. This was rightly “commemorated” with a lot of analysis about the limited effectiveness of the cap and Russian energy sanctions, particularly since mid 2023 when prices rose with OPEC+back in the drivers seat.… Continue reading Some thoughts on Russian oil Price Cap and oil markets
Update on the State of the Russian Economy and Sanctions
Many of us are contemplating lessons over the last year following Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine - I tackled some lessons about sanctions effectiveness and surprises in another post. This one addresses the state of play in Russia's economy and the outlook for sanctions. Overall, with the US government relatively satisfied with the oil price… Continue reading Update on the State of the Russian Economy and Sanctions
One Year on, Assessing the Impacts of Russia’s War Against Ukraine: A Conversation with the Doorstep podcast
At the beginning of February, I had the chance to chat with the hosts of the Doorstep Podcast. Tetiana Serafin and Nick Gvosdev about the state of the global economy, the resilience of the Russian economy and the rerouting of global trade. An excerpt is below but you can watch or read the whole thing… Continue reading One Year on, Assessing the Impacts of Russia’s War Against Ukraine: A Conversation with the Doorstep podcast
Update on the Russian Oil Price Cap: Deadlock on the “Price”
On, 25 November, EU officials have again failed to reach consensus on the price for Russian oil that would allow an exemption from the EU ban on using its services to transport and sell Russian seaborne crude (aka the G7 price cap). Officials have agreed to resume talks next week, a week out from the 5… Continue reading Update on the Russian Oil Price Cap: Deadlock on the “Price”
Russia Economic Resilience to Sanctions: Senate Testimony
On September 6. I testified in front of the Senate Banking Committee on the resilience of Russia's economy to sanctions, the recent development of new economic and financial cushions and the risk of unintended consequences from new sanctions: The full testimony can be found here. Russia’s economy has largely adjusted to sanctions imposed by the… Continue reading Russia Economic Resilience to Sanctions: Senate Testimony
Ziemba Insights 