Monitoring Local and Global Geoeconomic Catalysts
Saudi Arabia’s budget statement for 2020 was approved December 9, the end of a busy week for the country and its energy sector, including the prior week’s OPEC+ meeting and key developments in the long-awaited IPO of Saudi Aramco, its state-owned energy company. The budget takes a relatively conservative stance on both oil and non-oil… Continue reading Saudi Arabia: Trying to Hold the Line
The unexpected departure of Mexican Finance Minister Carlos Urzua sparked concern and market pressure, particularly as it was punctuated with a powerful departure letter criticizing the lack of support for evidence based policy and many economic “discrepancies” in policymaking. The move, not entirely surprising, comes amid concerns about political pressure on economic policy not only… Continue reading Mexican Macro Check-up: Contradictions Remain, adding to Chronic Problems
I’ve just returned from several days in Washington at the Spring Meetings of the IMF and World Bank, where I spoke to a range of investors, policymakers and academics. Overall, the mood was subdued, colored by continued concerns on growth, trade risks and other sources of policy uncertainty including central bank independence. While most thought… Continue reading Spring Meetings: Growth and Debt Worries, Investors More Optimistic
The IMF and World Bank Spring meetings kicked off this week in Washington, and are a good opportunity to take the pulse of global investors and policy makers on global risks and opportunities - emphasis likely to be on the former. The institutions own forecasts for growth signal another downgrade in expectations, perhaps catching down… Continue reading IMF/WB Spring Meetings: What I’m watching for
Since the beginning of the year, two major potential downside policy risks have receded, the risks of overtightening of financial conditions due to Fed and other central bank tightening and a further escalation of the tariffs associated with the U.S. China trade war. The combination has led to a strong asset market rally and reversal… Continue reading Global: Clouded Growth, Supportive Monetary Stance
On September 6. I testified in front of the Senate Banking Committee on the resilience of Russia's economy to sanctions, the recent development of new economic and financial cushions and the risk of unintended consequences from new sanctions: The full testimony can be found here. Russia’s economy has largely adjusted to sanctions imposed by the… Continue reading Russia Economic Resilience to Sanctions: Senate Testimony
The U.S. imposed financial sanctions on two key Turkish minsters August 1, blocking any U.S. transactions and assets for the ministers of Interior and Justice on grounds of continuing to imprison American Minister Andrew Brunson. Unsurprisingly Turkish assets especially the lira, sold off sharply on the announcement as uncertainty around sanctions reinforces other pre-existing stresses… Continue reading Turkey Sanctions: Some Things to Watch
