Next week’s annual meetings of the IMF and World Bank come at a key inflection point for the global economy as partial recoveries across major economies have stalled and Covid infection rates rising or remaining high in many developed economies and some emerging markets. This post surveys some of the trends I'm watching for at… Continue reading Looming Questions for the IFI Annual Meetings
Category: Global Scenarios
Potential Longer-term Implications of Covid19
I recently updated some macro scenarios around the impact of the novel coronavirus (covid19) which update my initial thoughts and my early 2020 risk scenarios. This companion post looks at some of trends which will shape not only the near-term scenarios but may shape any eventual recovery. Many economists are expecting a V-shaped recovery when the… Continue reading Potential Longer-term Implications of Covid19
Assessing the Next Wave of Macro Stress from Covid19
This piece updates my earlier analysis (late January) on Covid19 and is accompanied by a short note that looks in more detail at some longer term trends. My January analysis highlighted the importance of the policy response including the quarantines and travel cancellations in driving economic impact, making the impact unprecedented. The global economic impact began… Continue reading Assessing the Next Wave of Macro Stress from Covid19
Economic impacts of the Novel Coronavirus: What to Watch
The coronavirus onset in China and escalating policy response has hit global markets over the last week investors fear that it will hurt global growth. The policy response has shut down many key transport nodes and forced quarantines of urban areas where over 50 million people live. Meanwhile, many international airlines and stopped flights to… Continue reading Economic impacts of the Novel Coronavirus: What to Watch
Global Scenarios: What Can go Wrong?
Since early December, global market sentiment has been quite upbeat, as developments seen as risks including a tit-for-tat tariff escalation, an acute, unplanned and hard Brexit and (premature) monetary tightening and credit stress receded. These reinforced our view that global recession was unlikely, though growth remains relatively sluggish. All these trends and continued monetary support… Continue reading Global Scenarios: What Can go Wrong?
Global Outlook: Tenuous Trade Truce Overshadows Sluggish Demand
Bottom line: The most likely scenario is one of rather sluggish global growth, stabilizing from some 2019 trends, but not a strong expansion into 2020. A U.S. recession is not a done deal, and monetary policy settings will shift to an easier mode. These trends will likely keep political pressures and distribution issues rising and… Continue reading Global Outlook: Tenuous Trade Truce Overshadows Sluggish Demand
Spring Meetings: Growth and Debt Worries, Investors More Optimistic
I’ve just returned from several days in Washington at the Spring Meetings of the IMF and World Bank, where I spoke to a range of investors, policymakers and academics. Overall, the mood was subdued, colored by continued concerns on growth, trade risks and other sources of policy uncertainty including central bank independence. While most thought… Continue reading Spring Meetings: Growth and Debt Worries, Investors More Optimistic
IMF/WB Spring Meetings: What I’m watching for
The IMF and World Bank Spring meetings kicked off this week in Washington, and are a good opportunity to take the pulse of global investors and policy makers on global risks and opportunities - emphasis likely to be on the former. The institutions own forecasts for growth signal another downgrade in expectations, perhaps catching down… Continue reading IMF/WB Spring Meetings: What I’m watching for
Global: Clouded Growth, Supportive Monetary Stance
Since the beginning of the year, two major potential downside policy risks have receded, the risks of overtightening of financial conditions due to Fed and other central bank tightening and a further escalation of the tariffs associated with the U.S. China trade war. The combination has led to a strong asset market rally and reversal… Continue reading Global: Clouded Growth, Supportive Monetary Stance
Outlook: Trade, Energy and Financing Risks a Drag
It is now the time of mid-year reviews, so I thought a little recap was warranted. Recent Market action provides a good time to reassess some of the drivers of global growth and returns going into the second half of the year and look ahead to 2019. Key questions remains about the macro damage from… Continue reading Outlook: Trade, Energy and Financing Risks a Drag
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