I recently updated some macro scenarios around the impact of the novel coronavirus (covid19) which update my initial thoughts and my early 2020 risk scenarios. This companion post looks at some of trends which will shape not only the near-term scenarios but may shape any eventual recovery. Many economists are expecting a V-shaped recovery when the… Continue reading Potential Longer-term Implications of Covid19
This piece updates my earlier analysis (late January) on Covid19 and is accompanied by a short note that looks in more detail at some longer term trends. My January analysis highlighted the importance of the policy response including the quarantines and travel cancellations in driving economic impact, making the impact unprecedented. The global economic impact began… Continue reading Assessing the Next Wave of Macro Stress from Covid19
The coronavirus onset in China and escalating policy response has hit global markets over the last week investors fear that it will hurt global growth. The policy response has shut down many key transport nodes and forced quarantines of urban areas where over 50 million people live. Meanwhile, many international airlines and stopped flights to… Continue reading Economic impacts of the Novel Coronavirus: What to Watch
Since early December, global market sentiment has been quite upbeat, as developments seen as risks including a tit-for-tat tariff escalation, an acute, unplanned and hard Brexit and (premature) monetary tightening and credit stress receded. These reinforced our view that global recession was unlikely, though growth remains relatively sluggish. All these trends and continued monetary support… Continue reading Global Scenarios: What Can go Wrong?
Bottom line: The most likely scenario is one of rather sluggish global growth, stabilizing from some 2019 trends, but not a strong expansion into 2020. A U.S. recession is not a done deal, and monetary policy settings will shift to an easier mode. These trends will likely keep political pressures and distribution issues rising and… Continue reading Global Outlook: Tenuous Trade Truce Overshadows Sluggish Demand
I’ve just returned from several days in Washington at the Spring Meetings of the IMF and World Bank, where I spoke to a range of investors, policymakers and academics. Overall, the mood was subdued, colored by continued concerns on growth, trade risks and other sources of policy uncertainty including central bank independence. While most thought… Continue reading Spring Meetings: Growth and Debt Worries, Investors More Optimistic
The IMF and World Bank Spring meetings kicked off this week in Washington, and are a good opportunity to take the pulse of global investors and policy makers on global risks and opportunities - emphasis likely to be on the former. The institutions own forecasts for growth signal another downgrade in expectations, perhaps catching down… Continue reading IMF/WB Spring Meetings: What I’m watching for