Looming Questions for the IFI Annual Meetings

Next week’s annual meetings of the IMF and World Bank come at a key inflection point for the global economy as partial recoveries across major economies have stalled and Covid infection rates rising or remaining high in many developed economies and some emerging markets. This post surveys some of the trends I'm watching for at… Continue reading Looming Questions for the IFI Annual Meetings

Economic Challenges of Covid19: Deepening Recessions

COVID19 and its policy response has been damaging to global growth and a sharp global recession is now the base case. Most major economies are likely to experience sharp recessions as economic activity is shut down to avoid over-taxing the health care system. Globally this suggests rolling recessions, albeit very close on their heels beginning… Continue reading Economic Challenges of Covid19: Deepening Recessions

Potential Longer-term Implications of Covid19

I recently updated some macro scenarios around the impact of the novel coronavirus (covid19) which update my initial thoughts and my early 2020 risk scenarios. This companion post looks at some of trends which will shape not only the near-term scenarios but may shape any eventual recovery. Many economists are expecting a V-shaped recovery when the… Continue reading Potential Longer-term Implications of Covid19

Assessing the Next Wave of Macro Stress from Covid19

This piece updates my earlier analysis (late January) on Covid19 and is accompanied by a short note that looks in more detail at some longer term trends. My January analysis highlighted the importance of the policy response including the quarantines and travel cancellations in driving economic impact, making the impact unprecedented. The global economic impact began… Continue reading Assessing the Next Wave of Macro Stress from Covid19

Economic impacts of the Novel Coronavirus: What to Watch

The coronavirus onset in China and escalating policy response has hit global markets over the last week investors fear that it will hurt global growth. The policy response has shut down many key transport nodes and forced quarantines of urban areas where over 50 million people live. Meanwhile, many international airlines and stopped flights to… Continue reading Economic impacts of the Novel Coronavirus: What to Watch

Global Scenarios: What Can go Wrong?

Since early December, global market sentiment has been quite upbeat, as developments seen as risks including a tit-for-tat tariff escalation, an acute, unplanned and hard Brexit and (premature) monetary tightening and credit stress receded.  These reinforced our view that global recession was unlikely, though growth remains relatively sluggish. All these trends and continued monetary support… Continue reading Global Scenarios: What Can go Wrong?

Thought Provoking Reads 2019

Since I launched this blog, sharing my favorite books for the year has been one of the posts I’ve most enjoyed writing. I hope you enjoy reading them and sharing with me your recommendations. While I read a lot of thought-provoking pieces appear in feature article, academic journal and other formats, it’s a bit easier… Continue reading Thought Provoking Reads 2019

Global Outlook: Tenuous Trade Truce Overshadows Sluggish Demand

Bottom line: The most likely scenario is one of rather sluggish global growth, stabilizing from some 2019 trends, but not a strong expansion into 2020. A U.S. recession is not a done deal, and monetary policy settings will shift to an easier mode. These trends will likely keep political pressures and distribution issues rising and… Continue reading Global Outlook: Tenuous Trade Truce Overshadows Sluggish Demand

Mexican Macro Check-up: Contradictions Remain, adding to Chronic Problems

The unexpected departure of Mexican Finance Minister Carlos Urzua sparked concern and market pressure, particularly as it was punctuated with a powerful departure letter criticizing the lack of support for evidence based policy and many economic “discrepancies” in policymaking. The move, not entirely surprising, comes amid concerns about political pressure on economic policy not only… Continue reading Mexican Macro Check-up: Contradictions Remain, adding to Chronic Problems

Lingering Questions post G20

The major market takeaway from the G20 is the U.S.-China trade truce which defers the imposition of new tariffs from the U.S. and keeps/return the two countries to negotiations. This avoids a negative outcome of tit for tat tariffs in the near term, confirming some recent market optimism, but leaves many unanswered questions. Among areas… Continue reading Lingering Questions post G20