I’ve just returned from several days in Washington at the Spring Meetings of the IMF and World Bank, where I spoke to a range of investors, policymakers and academics. Overall, the mood was subdued, colored by continued concerns on growth, trade risks and other sources of policy uncertainty including central bank independence. While most thought… Continue reading Spring Meetings: Growth and Debt Worries, Investors More Optimistic
Since the beginning of the year, two major potential downside policy risks have receded, the risks of overtightening of financial conditions due to Fed and other central bank tightening and a further escalation of the tariffs associated with the U.S. China trade war. The combination has led to a strong asset market rally and reversal… Continue reading Global: Clouded Growth, Supportive Monetary Stance
As 2018 winds to an end, and 2019 lookaheads are completed, its time to share a few books that stuck with me this year from the 50 non-fiction books I read or listened to this year. Given my IPE teaching this fall, and ongoing macro risk work for clients, my non-fiction reading was dominated by… Continue reading Thought-provoking Reads 2018
2019 set to be a tougher year... Growth momentum has weakened in the second half of 2018, particularly in European and Asian exporters, who are responding to the end of above potential growth of the last few years, which has moderated final demand growth. Tariffs, restrictions and tighter financing costs have reinforced this trend, making… Continue reading Some Thoughts on the 2019 Outlook
I’m off to the annual meetings of the World Bank and IMF this week, a good chance to take the pulse on global market consensus and the worries of policy makers. Global trade risks and their impact on an already decelerating global economy are likely to top the worry list - with the impact of… Continue reading A Few Things I’m Watching For At the IMF/WB meetings
Last night's just-before-deadline announcement that Canada and U.S. had reached a deal was met with a sigh of relief in many capitals but especially Ottawa. Reaching a deal on the two linked bilateral deals was definitely better than the alternative of no deal and related uncertainty for investors and certainty of a tough congressional approval… Continue reading Some thoughts on USMCA: Good as it Gets?
With trade disputes ratcheting up, I’ve had many many questions about the impact of trade uncertainty on market actors and businesses, including whether markets are overpricing risks given the strength of global growth and final demand. Others have wondered if financial markets are underpricing risks. As trade threats (bark) move to partial implementation (bite), and… Continue reading Trade Policy Risks: Investing Amid Uncertainty