COVID19 and its policy response has been damaging to global growth and a sharp global recession is now the base case. Most major economies are likely to experience sharp recessions as economic activity is shut down to avoid over-taxing the health care system. Globally this suggests rolling recessions, albeit very close on their heels beginning… Continue reading Economic Challenges of Covid19: Deepening Recessions
Category: Trade
Economic impacts of the Novel Coronavirus: What to Watch
The coronavirus onset in China and escalating policy response has hit global markets over the last week investors fear that it will hurt global growth. The policy response has shut down many key transport nodes and forced quarantines of urban areas where over 50 million people live. Meanwhile, many international airlines and stopped flights to… Continue reading Economic impacts of the Novel Coronavirus: What to Watch
Global Scenarios: What Can go Wrong?
Since early December, global market sentiment has been quite upbeat, as developments seen as risks including a tit-for-tat tariff escalation, an acute, unplanned and hard Brexit and (premature) monetary tightening and credit stress receded. These reinforced our view that global recession was unlikely, though growth remains relatively sluggish. All these trends and continued monetary support… Continue reading Global Scenarios: What Can go Wrong?
Global Outlook: Tenuous Trade Truce Overshadows Sluggish Demand
Bottom line: The most likely scenario is one of rather sluggish global growth, stabilizing from some 2019 trends, but not a strong expansion into 2020. A U.S. recession is not a done deal, and monetary policy settings will shift to an easier mode. These trends will likely keep political pressures and distribution issues rising and… Continue reading Global Outlook: Tenuous Trade Truce Overshadows Sluggish Demand
Okanagan Wine Economy Questions
This post first appeared on my travel blog - as it focuses on economic questions about the wine ecosystem in British Columbia, I'm also reposting it here. It highlights the pressures to consolidate within the industry, the drivers of the sector's proliferation, the challenges of resource use (water, biodiversity and food supply) as well as… Continue reading Okanagan Wine Economy Questions
Lingering Questions post G20
The major market takeaway from the G20 is the U.S.-China trade truce which defers the imposition of new tariffs from the U.S. and keeps/return the two countries to negotiations. This avoids a negative outcome of tit for tat tariffs in the near term, confirming some recent market optimism, but leaves many unanswered questions. Among areas… Continue reading Lingering Questions post G20
Some Trade Takeaways and Risks
Much of my discussions over the last few days and weeks have focused on trade, especially U.S. policy and what happens now that a U.S. China trade deal seems further away. Key questions focus on the impact on the economy and markets, whether any countries can benefit and the path forward. Here are some of… Continue reading Some Trade Takeaways and Risks
Spring Meetings: Growth and Debt Worries, Investors More Optimistic
I’ve just returned from several days in Washington at the Spring Meetings of the IMF and World Bank, where I spoke to a range of investors, policymakers and academics. Overall, the mood was subdued, colored by continued concerns on growth, trade risks and other sources of policy uncertainty including central bank independence. While most thought… Continue reading Spring Meetings: Growth and Debt Worries, Investors More Optimistic
IMF/WB Spring Meetings: What I’m watching for
The IMF and World Bank Spring meetings kicked off this week in Washington, and are a good opportunity to take the pulse of global investors and policy makers on global risks and opportunities - emphasis likely to be on the former. The institutions own forecasts for growth signal another downgrade in expectations, perhaps catching down… Continue reading IMF/WB Spring Meetings: What I’m watching for
Global: Clouded Growth, Supportive Monetary Stance
Since the beginning of the year, two major potential downside policy risks have receded, the risks of overtightening of financial conditions due to Fed and other central bank tightening and a further escalation of the tariffs associated with the U.S. China trade war. The combination has led to a strong asset market rally and reversal… Continue reading Global: Clouded Growth, Supportive Monetary Stance
Ziemba Insights 