Over the last year, Brazil and Mexico have benefited from the shifting trade relationships and more recently the global disinflationary trends. While the trade vectors are different – Brazil is a rare source of new commodity exports, while Mexico is a near-shoring or China divestment winner, both stand out for their extensive (perhaps over active)… Continue reading Mexico and Brazil: Beneficiaries of the Fed Pause and Trade Rerouting
Tag: China
Are Markets Underestimating the Economic Risks from the Middle Eastern Conflict?
Since October 7, many have asked about the economic risks of the escalating and broadening conflict in the Middle East. Beyond the countries immediately involved, the risks that move the global economic needle linked to the global oil and gas balances, and in the last month, shipping costs. Higher Shipping Costs are Here to Stay,… Continue reading Are Markets Underestimating the Economic Risks from the Middle Eastern Conflict?
Update on the State of the Russian Economy and Sanctions
Many of us are contemplating lessons over the last year following Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine - I tackled some lessons about sanctions effectiveness and surprises in another post. This one addresses the state of play in Russia's economy and the outlook for sanctions. Overall, with the US government relatively satisfied with the oil price… Continue reading Update on the State of the Russian Economy and Sanctions
Global Outlook: Tenuous Trade Truce Overshadows Sluggish Demand
Bottom line: The most likely scenario is one of rather sluggish global growth, stabilizing from some 2019 trends, but not a strong expansion into 2020. A U.S. recession is not a done deal, and monetary policy settings will shift to an easier mode. These trends will likely keep political pressures and distribution issues rising and… Continue reading Global Outlook: Tenuous Trade Truce Overshadows Sluggish Demand
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