Turkey Sanctions: Some Things to Watch

The U.S. imposed financial sanctions on two key Turkish minsters August 1, blocking any U.S. transactions and assets for the ministers of Interior and Justice on grounds of continuing to imprison American Minister Andrew Brunson. Unsurprisingly Turkish assets especially the lira, sold off sharply on the announcement as uncertainty around sanctions reinforces other pre-existing stresses… Continue reading Turkey Sanctions: Some Things to Watch

OPEC Compromise: Can Kicking Buys Time for Sanctions Rollout and Demand

Last week, OPEC+ ministers managed to come to a consensus after days of contentious discussions in Vienna, achieving the goal of formally keeping the OPEC+ alliance together, but failing to solve some of the thorny issues between key members including Saudi Arabia and Iran. The final agreement, which commits the group to reversing recent overcompliance… Continue reading OPEC Compromise: Can Kicking Buys Time for Sanctions Rollout and Demand

Iran and risks to the Sanctions Regime

I've been spending a lot of time (maybe too much time) in the last few weeks thinking about the Iran deal and economic and political impact of the U.S. exit.  I'm not alone, judging by the sheer number of quickly organized JCPOA exit panels in D.C. last week. If people seemed insufficiently worried about the… Continue reading Iran and risks to the Sanctions Regime

EM Jitters Q&A: Too much Contagion worry?

Note: As this is a long post, feel free to download it here. Last week many Emerging market assets came under pressure following the rise in the US 10 year yield. The sell-off was concentrated in Turkish and Argentine markets, whose FX and thus other assets fell sharply, and in USD sovereign debt more generally,… Continue reading EM Jitters Q&A: Too much Contagion worry?

What I’m watching for at the Spring Meetings

Like many economic, development and financial types, I’m planning to be in Washington D.C. this week for the Spring meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank, which provide a good opportunity to take the pulse on current views on the global economy. It also provides a good chance to connect the threads of… Continue reading What I’m watching for at the Spring Meetings

Saudi Arabia: An Expansive Spending Plan, Mixed Messages for Private Sector

Saudi Arabia released its 2018 budget with great fanfare today, including a meaningful increase in spending directly and via off-balance sheet funds such the public investment fund (PIF). With the oil sector no longer a drag and the non-oil sector benefiting from government pump-priming, economic growth should accelerate, from near-recessionary levels, part of a broader… Continue reading Saudi Arabia: An Expansive Spending Plan, Mixed Messages for Private Sector