European ‘perfect storm’: Impacts of energy crisis

In late August, I spoke with Gridnews about the risks to the energy, economic and political risks associated with the energy price spikes in Europe and the globe exacerbated by the conflict with Russia. While Europe has many more policy levers to cushion their populations than poorer countries, the costs will mount, economically and politically.… Continue reading European ‘perfect storm’: Impacts of energy crisis

Scoring sanctions on Russia

In late June 2022, NPR asked me to do a new way of assessing sanctions effectiveness - scoring them. Rather than focused on intensity of impact (on Russian economic or financial markets), effectiveness needs to also consider change in policy or change in capacity not just economic strain. This is also difficult given the fact… Continue reading Scoring sanctions on Russia

OPEC: Putting off Tough Decisions for the Future

In its meeting June 2, OPEC+ agreed to speed up its production hikes, pledging to add 648 thousand barrels a day in July and August, about 200K more than it had signalled previously. This move was mildly positive politically, helping to paper over fraught US-GCC relations, and may be a precondition for a set of… Continue reading OPEC: Putting off Tough Decisions for the Future

Sanctions, Export Controls and Potential Commodity Impacts from Russia Ukraine crisis

In late January I had the pleasure of appearing on the Doorstep Podcast to share my views about the risks of sanctions, commodity market disruptions and other trends. What's the willingness to impose sanctions and costs on consumers in Europe and Globally? In a sense, I think the mixed messaging we have seen—particularly out of… Continue reading Sanctions, Export Controls and Potential Commodity Impacts from Russia Ukraine crisis