This note was originally published Oct 15 2022 as part of my IMF meetings recap. Oil Price Cap, Russia sanctions and Energy Risks On the side lines of the meetings, there were many discussions on the next steps in the economic pressure campaign on Russia and assessment of the unprecedented efforts taken so far. Representatives… Continue reading Update on the Price Cap: Aiming for Partial Compliance, Underestimating Potential Russian Supply Cuts
OPEC+: Not a mega cut
Today’s OPEC+ meeting confirmed several things. They prefer to boost revenues prices in the face of weak demand. OPEC has little interest in making it easy for the G7 to implement the price cap. There was a need to reset targets to (partly) adjust for massive under production from many producers producers are concerned about… Continue reading OPEC+: Not a mega cut
Scoring sanctions on Russia
In late June 2022, NPR asked me to do a new way of assessing sanctions effectiveness - scoring them. Rather than focused on intensity of impact (on Russian economic or financial markets), effectiveness needs to also consider change in policy or change in capacity not just economic strain. This is also difficult given the fact… Continue reading Scoring sanctions on Russia
OPEC: Putting off Tough Decisions for the Future
In its meeting June 2, OPEC+ agreed to speed up its production hikes, pledging to add 648 thousand barrels a day in July and August, about 200K more than it had signalled previously. This move was mildly positive politically, helping to paper over fraught US-GCC relations, and may be a precondition for a set of… Continue reading OPEC: Putting off Tough Decisions for the Future
Sanctions, Export Controls and Potential Commodity Impacts from Russia Ukraine crisis
In late January I had the pleasure of appearing on the Doorstep Podcast to share my views about the risks of sanctions, commodity market disruptions and other trends. What's the willingness to impose sanctions and costs on consumers in Europe and Globally? In a sense, I think the mixed messaging we have seen—particularly out of… Continue reading Sanctions, Export Controls and Potential Commodity Impacts from Russia Ukraine crisis
Iran’s Economy, Sanctions and key Scenarios
On October 7, I was pleased to join the Middle East Institute and Amwaj Media for a discussion about Iran's economy under sanctions and the trend ahead. The discussion coincided with stalled nuclear talks, as maximum pressure sanctions remain mostly in effect, Iran has built up additional nuclear capabilities. Read on or watch the video… Continue reading Iran’s Economy, Sanctions and key Scenarios
Sanctions Policy Under the Biden Administration: What do we know so far?
In May 2021, I had the fun opportunity to reflect on the first few month of Biden admin sanctions policy with Tatiana Serafin and Nick Gvosdev of the Doorstep podcast sponsored by the Carnegie Council. You can watch the video below or read the transcript in full (some excerpts can be found below). Overall in… Continue reading Sanctions Policy Under the Biden Administration: What do we know so far?