Monitoring Local and Global Geoeconomic Catalysts
Like many economic, development and financial types, I’m planning to be in Washington D.C. this week for the Spring meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank, which provide a good opportunity to take the pulse on current views on the global economy. It also provides a good chance to connect the threads of… Continue reading What I’m watching for at the Spring Meetings
With Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in Washington at the start of his long U.S. tour, there have been no shortage of good analyses written about what’s at stake and the motivations for the trip and Saudi social and economic reform – my favorites include those by Karen Young and Alastair Newton, as… Continue reading MBS World Tour: Saudi Arabia’s Looming Tradeoffs
This week, President Trump announced plans to introduce new tariffs for selected steel and alumnium goods, using the justification of the Section 232, the national security exemption. The move, set to be implemented next week, was swiftly condemned by a wide range of U.S. trading partners, including Canada, Mexico and South Korea, several of whom are… Continue reading U.S. Trade: Bark Starting to Bite?
The recent market selloff with its multiple linked triggers (inflation, fiscal expansion, past FX adjustment) and amplifiers (program trading, volatility funds and instruments, pricey valuations and desire to take profits in tax-mitigating way), seems a good time to take stock of the drivers of the macro and market environment going forward, to update you all… Continue reading What I’m Watching: Signposts and Theme Update
Global markets (especially) US bond markets, gyrated today following reports on two policy areas (Chinese capital and NAFTA/trade policy) that are set to be sources of volatility in 2018. In both cases, the storms in a teacup seemed disproportionate with (the lack of) new information. Press reports reminded investors about risks that may have been… Continue reading Edgy Markets (Over) react to Trade and China Risks?
Happy New Year! In honor of the season and my new blog, I’ve selected a few (non-fiction books) books among the 80+ I read/listened to in 2017 that stayed with me through the year and in some way made me think. Many of you may have heard me wax on about a few of these.… Continue reading Thought-provoking Reads 2017
Saudi Arabia released its 2018 budget with great fanfare today, including a meaningful increase in spending directly and via off-balance sheet funds such the public investment fund (PIF). With the oil sector no longer a drag and the non-oil sector benefiting from government pump-priming, economic growth should accelerate, from near-recessionary levels, part of a broader… Continue reading Saudi Arabia: An Expansive Spending Plan, Mixed Messages for Private Sector
I wrote earlier about some elements of the consensus macro view and some risks to those views (and my own). A key part of tracking consensus (and identifying out of the consensus views), is keeping track of the questions investors and others are asking each other. I'll plan to gather some of these on an ongoing basis through… Continue reading Key questions for 2018+: What’s on Investor’s Minds?
I’ve spent a lot of time over the last week participating in “2018” Outlook events, reading and writing outlooks. At the risk of adding to the deluge, its worth a few reflections about the status of consensus and where triggers might diverge. Almost everyone I've spoken to over the last few months is upbeat and… Continue reading Assessing 2018 Consensus and Risks to Views
With OPEC members and friends (and the ever growing energy journalist cohort) meeting in Vienna, it seems apt to look at the economic adjustment of some of the participating oil producers. While most would gain from rising prices. Russia, and Iran, smaller GCC countries (Kuwait, UAE and even Qatar) as well as some U.S. producers… Continue reading Vienna Agreement: Buying Time, Persistent Macro Divergence
Ziemba Insights 