2019 set to be a tougher year... Growth momentum has weakened in the second half of 2018, particularly in European and Asian exporters, who are responding to the end of above potential growth of the last few years, which has moderated final demand growth. Tariffs, restrictions and tighter financing costs have reinforced this trend, making… Continue reading Some Thoughts on the 2019 Outlook
Category: Trade
A Few Things I’m Watching For At the IMF/WB meetings
I’m off to the annual meetings of the World Bank and IMF this week, a good chance to take the pulse on global market consensus and the worries of policy makers. Global trade risks and their impact on an already decelerating global economy are likely to top the worry list - with the impact of… Continue reading A Few Things I’m Watching For At the IMF/WB meetings
Some thoughts on USMCA: Good as it Gets?
Last night's just-before-deadline announcement that Canada and U.S. had reached a deal was met with a sigh of relief in many capitals but especially Ottawa. Reaching a deal on the two linked bilateral deals was definitely better than the alternative of no deal and related uncertainty for investors and certainty of a tough congressional approval… Continue reading Some thoughts on USMCA: Good as it Gets?
Trade Policy Risks: Investing Amid Uncertainty
With trade disputes ratcheting up, I’ve had many many questions about the impact of trade uncertainty on market actors and businesses, including whether markets are overpricing risks given the strength of global growth and final demand. Others have wondered if financial markets are underpricing risks. As trade threats (bark) move to partial implementation (bite), and… Continue reading Trade Policy Risks: Investing Amid Uncertainty
Trade Policy Risks: Deploying Uncertainty
Lately with trade disputes ratcheting up, I’ve had a lot of questions about the impact of trade uncertainty on market actors and businesses, including whether markets are overpricing risks given the strength of global growth. The jury’s still out, particularly as we’ve been in an as good as it gets moment, but the results don’t… Continue reading Trade Policy Risks: Deploying Uncertainty
Outlook: Trade, Energy and Financing Risks a Drag
It is now the time of mid-year reviews, so I thought a little recap was warranted. Recent Market action provides a good time to reassess some of the drivers of global growth and returns going into the second half of the year and look ahead to 2019. Key questions remains about the macro damage from… Continue reading Outlook: Trade, Energy and Financing Risks a Drag
EM Jitters Q&A: Too much Contagion worry?
Note: As this is a long post, feel free to download it here. Last week many Emerging market assets came under pressure following the rise in the US 10 year yield. The sell-off was concentrated in Turkish and Argentine markets, whose FX and thus other assets fell sharply, and in USD sovereign debt more generally,… Continue reading EM Jitters Q&A: Too much Contagion worry?
What I’m watching for at the Spring Meetings
Like many economic, development and financial types, I’m planning to be in Washington D.C. this week for the Spring meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank, which provide a good opportunity to take the pulse on current views on the global economy. It also provides a good chance to connect the threads of… Continue reading What I’m watching for at the Spring Meetings
U.S. Trade: Bark Starting to Bite?
This week, President Trump announced plans to introduce new tariffs for selected steel and alumnium goods, using the justification of the Section 232, the national security exemption. The move, set to be implemented next week, was swiftly condemned by a wide range of U.S. trading partners, including Canada, Mexico and South Korea, several of whom are… Continue reading U.S. Trade: Bark Starting to Bite?
Takeaways from Ottawa: Trying to Crack the Progressive Trade Puzzle
I spent some days last week in Waterloo, Toronto and Ottawa to give some presentations and try to better understand Canadian trade policy. With Canadians playing a starring role in the previous week’s excitements in Vietnam the week before last on TPP-11 or the Progressive Comprehensive TransPacific Partnership (CPTPP), it seemed a good time to… Continue reading Takeaways from Ottawa: Trying to Crack the Progressive Trade Puzzle
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