The long-awaited second half boost in oil prices has arrived, with oil prices getting close to $100/barrel before pulling back. Unfortunately for oil producers, this higher price is a function of supply cuts (largely from the GCC, with Russia belatedly participating) rather than the hoped for Chinese demand surge. While oil demand has been ok,… Continue reading Energy Markets: OPEC+ vs Demand
Category: Oil Producers
BRICS Summit: Big Plans, Implementation Challenges
The recent BRICS summit, hosted by South Africa, was perhaps the most meaningful yet, inviting new members and announcing plans on de-dollarization, development funding and trade relationships. Many challenges and questions remain about the implementation of planned new financial and trade infrastructure given the difficulties building new financial plumbing, the competition within the group and… Continue reading BRICS Summit: Big Plans, Implementation Challenges
GCC-China Trade Ties
In early April, I was delighted to join Sun Degang and Nasser Saidi in a discussion about GCC-China Trade and Investment hosted by the Robert Mogielnicki of the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington. The trigger for the discussion was the progress in negotiating the long-delayed GCC-China FTA, which has been under discussion for decades,… Continue reading GCC-China Trade Ties
Update on the Price Cap: Aiming for Partial Compliance, Underestimating Potential Russian Supply Cuts
This note was originally published Oct 15 2022 as part of my IMF meetings recap. Oil Price Cap, Russia sanctions and Energy Risks On the side lines of the meetings, there were many discussions on the next steps in the economic pressure campaign on Russia and assessment of the unprecedented efforts taken so far. Representatives… Continue reading Update on the Price Cap: Aiming for Partial Compliance, Underestimating Potential Russian Supply Cuts
OPEC+: Not a mega cut
Today’s OPEC+ meeting confirmed several things. They prefer to boost revenues prices in the face of weak demand. OPEC has little interest in making it easy for the G7 to implement the price cap. There was a need to reset targets to (partly) adjust for massive under production from many producers producers are concerned about… Continue reading OPEC+: Not a mega cut
Energy: signs of demand destruction? Do they outstrip supply risks?
at the start of July I spoke to CNBC Asia about the oil, products and natural gas balances. While there are starting to be some signs of demand destruction, especially in the US where gasoline demand is softening compared to 2021, demand is still near historic highs. Moreover other issues including how to manage the… Continue reading Energy: signs of demand destruction? Do they outstrip supply risks?
Scoring sanctions on Russia
In late June 2022, NPR asked me to do a new way of assessing sanctions effectiveness - scoring them. Rather than focused on intensity of impact (on Russian economic or financial markets), effectiveness needs to also consider change in policy or change in capacity not just economic strain. This is also difficult given the fact… Continue reading Scoring sanctions on Russia
OPEC: Putting off Tough Decisions for the Future
In its meeting June 2, OPEC+ agreed to speed up its production hikes, pledging to add 648 thousand barrels a day in July and August, about 200K more than it had signalled previously. This move was mildly positive politically, helping to paper over fraught US-GCC relations, and may be a precondition for a set of… Continue reading OPEC: Putting off Tough Decisions for the Future
An Update on Gulf Sovereign Wealth Funds
On October 14, I was pleased to join the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington and Abana for a panel on Gulf Sovereign Funds. While sovereign funds have been key actors in the region for decades, their role takes on even more importance as Gulf countries navigate towards economic and energy transition and seek to… Continue reading An Update on Gulf Sovereign Wealth Funds
Iran’s Economy, Sanctions and key Scenarios
On October 7, I was pleased to join the Middle East Institute and Amwaj Media for a discussion about Iran's economy under sanctions and the trend ahead. The discussion coincided with stalled nuclear talks, as maximum pressure sanctions remain mostly in effect, Iran has built up additional nuclear capabilities. Read on or watch the video… Continue reading Iran’s Economy, Sanctions and key Scenarios
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