With trade disputes ratcheting up, I’ve had many many questions about the impact of trade uncertainty on market actors and businesses, including whether markets are overpricing risks given the strength of global growth and final demand. Others have wondered if financial markets are underpricing risks. As trade threats (bark) move to partial implementation (bite), and… Continue reading Trade Policy Risks: Investing Amid Uncertainty
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Trade Policy Risks: Deploying Uncertainty
Lately with trade disputes ratcheting up, I’ve had a lot of questions about the impact of trade uncertainty on market actors and businesses, including whether markets are overpricing risks given the strength of global growth. The jury’s still out, particularly as we’ve been in an as good as it gets moment, but the results don’t… Continue reading Trade Policy Risks: Deploying Uncertainty
OPEC Compromise: Can Kicking Buys Time for Sanctions Rollout and Demand
Last week, OPEC+ ministers managed to come to a consensus after days of contentious discussions in Vienna, achieving the goal of formally keeping the OPEC+ alliance together, but failing to solve some of the thorny issues between key members including Saudi Arabia and Iran. The final agreement, which commits the group to reversing recent overcompliance… Continue reading OPEC Compromise: Can Kicking Buys Time for Sanctions Rollout and Demand
Outlook: Trade, Energy and Financing Risks a Drag
It is now the time of mid-year reviews, so I thought a little recap was warranted. Recent Market action provides a good time to reassess some of the drivers of global growth and returns going into the second half of the year and look ahead to 2019. Key questions remains about the macro damage from… Continue reading Outlook: Trade, Energy and Financing Risks a Drag
Iran and risks to the Sanctions Regime
I've been spending a lot of time (maybe too much time) in the last few weeks thinking about the Iran deal and economic and political impact of the U.S. exit. I'm not alone, judging by the sheer number of quickly organized JCPOA exit panels in D.C. last week. If people seemed insufficiently worried about the… Continue reading Iran and risks to the Sanctions Regime
Iran Deal Response: More Unanswered Questions
Last week, I wrote about some of the key questions surrounding the U.S. withdrawal or rather violation of the JCPOA which focused on the responses of Iran (production, discounting, regional policy), Europe (blocking measures), and Asian buyers of Iranian goods. Since then the focus has been on the European counter response to the U.S. decision,… Continue reading Iran Deal Response: More Unanswered Questions
Iran Sanctions: Unanswered Questions
The U.S. has exited the Iran deal/become non-compliant and announced a timeline to reimpose the sanctions that had been suspended in 2015, as many people feared. Some key questions have been answered including the phase-in period, start of discussions with suppliers, but many key ones remain unanswered. In this post, I’ll take a look at… Continue reading Iran Sanctions: Unanswered Questions
EM Jitters Q&A: Too much Contagion worry?
Note: As this is a long post, feel free to download it here. Last week many Emerging market assets came under pressure following the rise in the US 10 year yield. The sell-off was concentrated in Turkish and Argentine markets, whose FX and thus other assets fell sharply, and in USD sovereign debt more generally,… Continue reading EM Jitters Q&A: Too much Contagion worry?
Iran’s economy: FX, Energy and Domestic Policy Choices
Early last week I wrote about my concern that the risks Iran deal were not on the radar of many global investors and policy makers, one of the surprises from my last DC trip. I needn’t have worried – its now top of the agenda, or at least sharing it with China trade, Nafta and… Continue reading Iran’s economy: FX, Energy and Domestic Policy Choices
Spring Meetings Takeaways: Robust Outlook Clouded by Trade and Sanctions Worries
The mood at last week’s Spring meetings of the IMF and World Bank was quite upbeat, as anticipated (see my preview here) though there were considerable concerns that near-term strength, exacerbated by U.S. fiscal stimulus and still supportive global monetary stimulus might be masking medium-term vulnerabilities. Many major economies are growing above potential, and are… Continue reading Spring Meetings Takeaways: Robust Outlook Clouded by Trade and Sanctions Worries
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