Monitoring Local and Global Geoeconomic Catalysts
With global oil demand growth slow, Saudi Arabian authorities are pulling assets from abroad, unlocking assets from the national balance sheet and prioritizing local development projects to support growth. Looking ahead, the outlook will stabilize as the macro hit from the past production cuts eases, but prolonged higher interest rates and prioritization of local projects… Continue reading Saudi Arabia: Inward Focus as Global Oil Demand Remains Sluggish
The recent BRICS summit, hosted by South Africa, was perhaps the most meaningful yet, inviting new members and announcing plans on de-dollarization, development funding and trade relationships. Many challenges and questions remain about the implementation of planned new financial and trade infrastructure given the difficulties building new financial plumbing, the competition within the group and… Continue reading BRICS Summit: Big Plans, Implementation Challenges
Today’s OPEC+ meeting confirmed several things. They prefer to boost revenues prices in the face of weak demand. OPEC has little interest in making it easy for the G7 to implement the price cap. There was a need to reset targets to (partly) adjust for massive under production from many producers producers are concerned about… Continue reading OPEC+: Not a mega cut
This piece first appeared on the Low Insitute's Interpreter in early July 2021 and concerns the divides between oil exporting nations which are being amplified by the energy transition and uneven recovery. The 1 July OPEC meeting ended in deadlock. Although all the major oil producers agreed in principle to collectively boost production by 400,000… Continue reading OPEC Standoff: Resetting market share
Saudi Arabia’s budget statement for 2020 was approved December 9, the end of a busy week for the country and its energy sector, including the prior week’s OPEC+ meeting and key developments in the long-awaited IPO of Saudi Aramco, its state-owned energy company. The budget takes a relatively conservative stance on both oil and non-oil… Continue reading Saudi Arabia: Trying to Hold the Line
Last week, OPEC+ ministers managed to come to a consensus after days of contentious discussions in Vienna, achieving the goal of formally keeping the OPEC+ alliance together, but failing to solve some of the thorny issues between key members including Saudi Arabia and Iran. The final agreement, which commits the group to reversing recent overcompliance… Continue reading OPEC Compromise: Can Kicking Buys Time for Sanctions Rollout and Demand
With Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in Washington at the start of his long U.S. tour, there have been no shortage of good analyses written about what’s at stake and the motivations for the trip and Saudi social and economic reform – my favorites include those by Karen Young and Alastair Newton, as… Continue reading MBS World Tour: Saudi Arabia’s Looming Tradeoffs
Saudi Arabia released its 2018 budget with great fanfare today, including a meaningful increase in spending directly and via off-balance sheet funds such the public investment fund (PIF). With the oil sector no longer a drag and the non-oil sector benefiting from government pump-priming, economic growth should accelerate, from near-recessionary levels, part of a broader… Continue reading Saudi Arabia: An Expansive Spending Plan, Mixed Messages for Private Sector
Ziemba Insights 